However, the provisions announced, focused on the simplification of fiscal information regimes, are far from configuring a money laundering in the strict sense, leaving Questions about their ability to attract unplanned funds and guarantee legal certainty to taxpayers. These measures represent a step towards overburocratization, but their real impact will depend on the legislative details that are still defined.
Previous context and expectations
In the previous weeks, the Minister of Economy had anticipated a set of initiatives to channel the unstalled savings – stated in billions of dollars – to the real economy. The expectation was high, especially after the relative success of a laundering implemented six months ago, which allowed the regularization of funds at no fiscal cost and immediate availability. However, The announcement, originally scheduled for last week, was postponed with the argument of preventing it from being perceived as an electoral maneuver. This delay fed the speculation between analysts and investors, who awaited a robust framework that encouraged the formalization of capital without legal risks.
The announced measures: simplification, but without whitish
The core of the measures presented today focuses on the elimination or modification of the information regimes that force banks, notaries, real estate and other economic agents to report operations to the Collection Agency of the Autonomous City (ARCA, Ex AFIP). Among the outstanding provisions, the requirements of informing transactions made with credit and debit cards, bank transfers greater than certain amounts, and operations related to the sale of real estate and used vehicles are eliminated. In addition, the thresholds from which entities must notify financial movements, with the aim of reducing administrative burden on taxpayers, were significantly raised.
Juan Pazo, head of ARKexplained during the conference that these reforms seek “Simplify the life of the citizen and reduce the costs associated with bureaucracy.” Indeed, these measures respond to a long -standing demand for the private sector, which has indicated that information regimes, far from combating evasion, more expensive and complicate legitimate operations. For example, the obligation to report bank transfers or purchases of registrable goods generated operational frictions, especially for small and medium enterprises. This simplification is a step in the right direction.
The great absence: a legal framework
Despite the advances in simplification, the announced measures do not constitute a money laundering, which has generated confusion. The expected plan to “release the dollars from the mattress” lacks, for now, an essential component: a regulatory framework that guarantees taxpayers that unstalled funds that incorporate into the formal economy will not be subject to future inspections or sanctions. Adorni tried to dissipate these concerns by stating that “from now on, everyone will be innocent until Arca demonstrates otherwise.” However, this statement, although politically resonant, has no binding legal support and leaves taxpayers in a position of vulnerability.
To illustrate the risk, consider a hypothetical case. A taxpayer decides to use US $ 1550,000, stored outside the formal system, to acquire a property. Under the new rules, the notary will not be obliged to report the operation to Arca, which reduces the immediate visibility of the transaction. However, When presenting his declaration of personal goods at the end of the year, the increase in his assets could shoot an alert in the collecting body. Arca could demand the justification of the origin of the funds, and, in the absence of declared income that supports the operation, the taxpayer would face the possibility of sanctions, fines or even criminal actions. Without a regulation that explicitly covers these operations, savers are exposed to the discretion of the treasury.
The bills: a promise on the horizon
The Government announced that it will send two bills to Congress to complement the measures presented. Although the details were not revealed, These initiatives are expected to address the need for a legal framework that provides guarantees to those who decide to dump funds not declared to the formal economy. The success of these measures will depend on the clarity and robustness of the proposed standards. Without an explicit laundering, with fiscal amnesty and clear rules, it is difficult for not declared capitals to assume the risk of formalizing them.
ANDThe precedent of the money laundering of six months adds an additional nuance to the discussion. That initiative, which allowed regularizing funds at no fiscal cost and with immediate access, managed to incorporate a significant amount of capital into the formal system. However, a considerable portion of these funds did not translate into productive investments or consumption, but remained in bank accounts or was intended for financial assets. This raises a key question: if a laundering with favorable conditions failed to fully energize the real economy, what additional incentives will the new measures offer to convince savers to assume additional risks?
Future perspectives
The Government now faces the challenge of translating the intentions announced in effective policies. The bills that will be presented to the Congress will be crucial to determine if the plan achieves its objective of channeling capital not declared towards the productive economy. Investors will be attentive to the details of these initiatives, particularly with regard to guarantees against retroactive inspections and the conditions for the regularization of funds.
In the short term, the announced measures do not seem that they can generate an impulse in economic activity. Without an explicit laundering and a solid regulatory framework, it is unlikely that unstalled savings – stated in tens of billions of dollars – flow massively towards the formal economy.
At the moment the not declared money may be more difficult to detect but does not eliminate the risk or consequences for taxpayers.
Economist
Source: Ambito
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