In recent days, several Argentine banks have decided to increase interest rates offered for term deposits in dollarsin an attempt by capture the attention of savers in the midst of an economic scenario that remains complex and volatile. These increases in rates respond to a combination of factors, both local and international, which are modeling monetary policy and the expectations of financial markets.
This phenomenon occurs at a time when inflation in the United States shows signs of moderation, while the Federal Reserve has decided to keep the reference interest rates unchanged, in contrast to the performance of the 10 -year American Treasury Bonus, which is around 4.40%which reflects a panorama of uncertainty and cross expectations that affect the investment decisions of savers and banks.
The increases in the rates offered by Argentine banks for term deposits in dollars cannot be explained without understanding the international context, especially what happens in the United States, the main economy of the world and whose movements have an impact on the global financial system. In March 2025, the annual inflation rate in the United States was moderated up to 2.4%, the lowest level since September of last year. This figure was below market expectations, which anticipated 2.6%, and was also less than 2.8% recorded in February. These data generated a moderate optimism regarding the ability of the Federal Reserve to contain inflation, although it is not yet clear if that decrease will be sufficient to allow cuts in short -term interest rates.
The FED, at its most recent meeting, decided to keep interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, ignoring the pressures of President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly claimed a more expansive monetary policy to stimulate economic growth and improve the financing conditions of companies and consumers. However, the president of the FED, Jerome Powell, has reiterated that the decisions of the Central Bank will be based on economic data and that the priority is to guarantee long -term price stability. This position of “waiting and seeing” reflects the caution that Fed maintains before the mixed signals offered by the US economy, which shows solidity in some sectors, but also vulnerabilities that could affect its growth rate in the next quarters.
The Fed decision not to cut the rates contrasts with the expectations of some investors and analysts who anticipated a more lax policy for the second half of this year. However, the projections of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) show that, despite inflationary moderation, rates could be placed at an average of 3.9% at the end of 2025, above the 3.4% previously planned.
This suggests that the institution will maintain a restrictive position for a longer time, waiting for inflation to consolidate within its long -term objective range. The immediate consequence of this policy is the firmness in the yields of the US financial instruments, particularly of the 10 -year Treasury bonds, which in recent days has registered a performance of 4.40%, reflecting the preference of investors by safe assets and caution before the future of monetary policy.
The performance of this instrument has become a key thermometer to measure market expectations. During the last weeks, this yield has oscillated between 4.30% and 4.50%, amid the volatility generated by macroeconomic data and the statements of Fed officials. The 10 -year Treasury Bono is considered a safe refuge in time of uncertaintyso its performance usually serves as a reference to set the interest rates of loans and deposits worldwide. Thus, the firmness of the performance of this bonus is also affecting the rates that Argentine banks are willing to pay savers to place their dollars in fixed deadlines.
Local banks, attentive to these signs, have reacted by increasing the rates they offer for term deposits in dollars. This decision not only seeks to make the placement of savings in foreign currency more attractive, but also Compete with other investment alternatives, such as Argentine sovereign bonds or common investment funds in dollars.
The rates offered vary according to the financial entity and the deposited amount, but in general they have increased by up to 5.15 %in a context where the dollarization of portfolios remains a dominant strategy for conservative investor profile savers
Increases in dollar deposit rates are also related to the need for banks to strengthen their liquidity positions and improve their anchorage profile. In a context of higher international rates and restrictions on access to external financing, Argentine banks seek to strengthen their dollar deposit base to be able to support their operations and, in some cases, to support loans or credit lines in foreign currency aimed at companies that export or import. Thus, the increase in interest rates not only responds to competition between banks to capture deposits, but also to a need to sustain the solidity of their balances in the face of global volatility.
The impact of these decisions on the local economy is significant. For savers, the possibility of obtaining a higher yield for their dollars is attractive in a context of high uncertainty, both by local factors and the international situationl. However, it also raises challenges, especially because the increase in dollars in dollars can increase the cost of financing for companies that have credits in that currency, affecting their competitiveness and investment capacity. At the same time, the greatest profitability of dollars in dollars could encourage a lower placement of funds in pesos, affecting the demand for instruments in local currency and deepening the dollarization of portfolios that already characterizes the Argentine financial system.
*The author is a financial analyst.-
Source: Ambito
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