The Treasury He went out to prove the appetite of international markets with a bond in fixed rate pesos in expiration in 2030. since Monday, when it was confirmed that the Bonte 2030 would be part of the tender and be enabled to Non -resident investorsthe debate was installed on what would be the rate of rate that would validate economy. Finally, the instrument cut with a coupon of 29.5% TNA (TEA: 31.8%; TEM: 2.32%; MD: 2.5%).
Beyond that debate, The award was total: The U $ 1,000 million plannedafter receiving Offers for US $ 1.7 billion. As the subscription was in dollars, the operation contributes currencies to reservations of the BCRA, a key point for the Compliance with the goal with the IMFscheduled for next June 13.
A first possible approach is to review background: Luis Caputo, Santiago Bausili and Pablo Quirno – today in the economic team – they were part of Mauricio Macri’s Ministry of Finance when they were placed US $ 9.1 billion in boatsa story that ended badly due to macro deterioration.
But the focus today is in the future. And the market already It has tools to evaluate the bonus.
The “put” key in 2027
A central point is that Bonte 2030 Includes an early sale option (“Put”) in May 2027. In terms of Durationthat “put” places it in 1.4 yearsnot so far from the last point of the curve at a fixed rate (the Boncap January 2027), which on the day of the tender was operated in the secondary with a TEA of 28.5%.
In theory, in a disinflation process, The shortest instruments should pay more To compensate. However, 90% of the boncap is in the hands of the Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS)what may be disarging its price. Despite that, the Bonte 2030 cut above the LECAP as of June 2026. The curve appears inverted in the short section, but The new bond offered a clear award in front of the rest of the comparable bonds.
Bonte 2030: A potential bonus if disinflation is sustained
If the process of disinflation persists and the exchange rate remains controlledthe Bonte 2030 offers high potential. There could even be “Upside” for the first holderssince the May high frequency inflation data They point to a figure close to 2%significantly below the The validity of 2.32%which leave margin in case the volatility returns exchange.
To evaluate your yield, you can compare with dollar or indexed bonds by CER. So that the 2030 Bonte exceed the hill a hard dollar bonusthe inflation should averance less than 19.8% per year and the weight depreciation does not exceed 17.1% per year.
While this threshold seems attainable under the current dynamics, the market is Price a real exchange rate of $ 1,026 by 2030one of the lowest in Argentine history.
This influenced the valuation: The exchange rate set in the tender was $ 1,148but already quoted at $ 1,161 the next day (+1.1%).
In this context, the implicit real exchange rate It requires that Sturzenegger’s reform agenda be fully applied and that Argentina achieve a strong increase in productivity In the coming years.
Although the new exchange scheme acts as A kind of insurance (The dollar can only move to the rhythm of a 12.7% tea when touching the band’s roof), that roof can push up The exchange rate if the pressure is supported. Even so, with a 1.5% monthly break inflationthe Bonte 2030 competitive looks in front of the CER.
Present value even with anticipated expiration
As for the Optionalityno significant difference is observed. The important thing is that inflation should average more than 20.8% annual (1.6% monthly) To opt for a CER bonus instead of the Bonte. With May inflation around 2%, That threshold seems attainablebut does not guarantee a clear advantage.
In other words, even if Take the 2027 put as expirationperformance remains More than competitive. In addition, it is obtained A free option: Keep the bonus until 2030 and set the rateeither execute early rescue If the context changes.
Conclusion: “Upside” and dollars entry
In summary, Bonte 2030 shows Clear bullish potentialproduct of a decision of the government of make the instrument attractive For investors willing to accompany your plan. In the first wheels, it could quote with focus on the “put”but over time it will begin to negotiate like a 2030 bonuswhich could attract more foreign investors and validate lower rates In upcoming tenders.
In addition, it would open the possibility of New dollars of dollars through financing in pesoskey to Cover wives in hard currency.
The dollar pressure before debut
A striking fact: the bonus He still did not liquidate in customer accountsand the wholesale dollar (A3500) has already risen 2.3% From the subscription exchange rate. Thus, in the first wheel, For holders should offer it at least at $ 102.3 (TNA: 28.6%; TEA: 30.6%; Tem: 2.3%) to compensate for that exchange loss.
This rise in the dollar would be explained, in part, by the Durious coin maturities from several provinces June 1: City of Buenos Aires (U $ S330 million), Córdoba (US $ 15 million) and Salta (US $ 56 million)for a total of US $404 million. Although Santiago Bausili tried to minimize the impacthe recalled that Since November a rule governs that allows access to Mulc up to 60 days before expirationinstead of only three previous business days.
Anyway, unlike the previous scheme – where these payments implied a Fall of reservations-, The new regime adjust for priceexercising like this Alcista pressure on the official exchange rate.
PPI analyst
Source: Ambito
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