Donald Trump always wrinkles. Do you reopen the fight with China to prove that it is not a chicken? Yes, but you already know how it ends
Donald Trump It goes to the front. But, Is it a real alpha male or a simulator? Is it a negotiation teacher – how to self -communicate – or of the systematic withdrawal? The commercial war is a personal matter. And the failure passes. No one went further the tariff rise than Trump on the day of liberation. No one lowered them so much – not as fast – as he himself a week later. Trump always wrinkles, is the new dictum he introduced Robert Armstrong In the Financial Times. Taco is his acronym in English. And the markets already made it their own. The powerful recovery of the bag – which ignored the traditional prudence of the Sell in May to perch again very close to records – is inspired by that conviction. Of course, the bag perceived it first. Armstrong wrote his column on May 2. Trump reculled with reciprocal tariffs on April 9. The S&P 500 touched background before, 7, and raised transcarton flight. Intuition or privileged information (another very Trumpist feature)? They are not exclusive. The truth is that the rally was not truncated, and charged wings, thanks to the fact that the White House has since sustained its extreme positions. The express agreement with China consolidated it. Is it a mistake? Cleanly, no. Especially, if the concern is for the health of the economy. The reverse was a success. The tariff shock led to hit the wall at high speed, quite the opposite of a release.
Trump always wrinkles? “Do not repeat the question, the president replied when they consulted this week, it is very unpleasant.” What to say about the taco theory? “That is called negotiation,” he justified. It must be considered that when assuming the presidency on January 20, the US Average Tariff Orilled 3%. Today, after all the marches and countermarkers, depending on how it is calculated (and with the reality of an import pattern in full move), it would be between 16.4% and 17.8%, the highest since the 30s (if the tariffs in force in mid -May were kept without changes). Did Trump wrinkle? Yes of course. But, he first took care of the rope to the fullest. And, in the end, as a balance, he multiplied the effective tariffs by 5 or 6. It is a situation that, even in the electoral campaign, seemed impossible to reach (amen of disastrous). Now it is appreciated as a Trump defction and a moderate output of the conflict. The Fed, an impartial referee, could resume the low rates if the commercial bid is parked where it is, said the governor Chris Waller.
How does Trump explain the negotiation in “The Art of Treatment”, its well -known trade manual? You must always start with a punch on the table and a leonine, excessive proposal, which causes surprise and fear counterpart. Thus the space is manufactured to be able to grant later and obtain what one really ambitions (and perhaps more). And, in the ideal case, the opposite part, grateful. “Taco” Trump is taking a significant slice of extra collection that yearns to cover the cost of the tax reduction discussed in Congress. “20 or 25 billion dollars per month,” the Secretary of Commerce boasts Howard Lutnick. But, it is evident, the trick cannot be repeated once and again, in view of all, without losing efficacy. And it is clear: they have already taken out the file.
Trump must take care of his image. You cannot allow the nickname or to doubt your character and leadership capacity. His name is his brand, his most valuable asset. It should be browsed serious problems as an entrepreneur – half a dozen creditors calls – without his last name ceasing to be an aspirational reference, a synonym for luxury and ostentation. Trump either wrinkled in politics. Not even at its worst moment, after the assault on the Capitol in 2021. How are they going to call it a loser? With tenacity he remained from the opprobrium and resumed the absolute control of the party. Those who opposed them are no longer, retired them. Or they changed drastically. JD Vance He described him as an idiot and compared it to Hitler. Today is its vice president. And thanks to Trump, with a remarkable bundle, he specified the feat of winning his second term, unobjestably, at the polls. We are notified. You have to take off the irritating nickname as soon as possible. And that forces him to overact.
Trump is still predictable. Where to start? For China, its most visible concession. In campaign he threatened her with 60%tariffs. And then the rod rose up to 145%. But he needed a truce and Beijing forced him to go down to 30% to close an express deal. It is the most hurtful withdrawal, because with China libra the background confrontation. AND Xi Jinping He already vaccinated it in 2020. Then he made the promise of the commercial pact phase one to give in, and then did not comply with him.
“China has totally violated the agreement,” the President bramó on Friday in X. “Until here it came to be ´mr. Nice Guy` (Friendly Mr.),” he closed his post as if he recognized the need not to wrinkle anymore. Is Trump arranged to rekindle the trade war to define his image? At the cost of pushing the economy to a recession? He also announced the duplication of the levies on steel and aluminum – taking them to a 50% stratospheric – as to accentuate the violence of their decisions. If justice questions it, it has other shortcuts. And the agreements that are ready to be announced must wait more, or beautify. He is willing to make waves again, yes. But there is a difference between a shooting and a war. The bag that accused receipt of the skirmish – the Nasdaq at noon came 1.5% – closed the wheel with all its main indexes in positive. His conclusion did not vary. There is not much margin for outbursts. In any case, a sharp rise of long rates will suffice to calm any tantrum.
In that line, the Secretary of the Treasury Scott Besent He admitted that negotiations with China bogged down. He said that a conversation between Trump and Xi Jinping is necessary to solve the mess. It would be said that Trump wants to go back as strong men do, hugged in a shared epic. Thus, Wall Street does not lose sleep. He canceled the Sell in May, registered its largest monthly rise since 2023 and the best May of the last 35 years. In the events, he crossed out the commercial war as if it were the double general. Trust the severe pressure brand that makes you feel the white house bond market. Trump may be annoying, but he got alone in the enclosure. And he already learned that he cannot set fire to the meadow and pretend to be saved.
Source: Ambito
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