The first half of the year closed with an Argentine economy in full reorganization process and an international scenario crossed by commercial tensions, deceleration of consumption and rates low expectations.
In this context, investors face a double challenge: preserve the real value of its capital and detect genuine performance opportunities in an environment that changes faster than the market consensus.
Argentina: stabilization without euphoria
At the local level, some variables are consolidated that allow talking about a more predictable macro. Monthly inflation slows down (between 1.5% and 2.2% in May), the exchange rate is maintained in the band established by the new exchange regime and the treasure managed to partially return to the markets with the issuance of Bonte 2030.
To this is added the Sustainment of the fiscal surplus and the expectation of new casualties in pesos, which begin to redefine Carry strategies.
However, caution remains key. The banking sector, protagonist of the 2024 rally, lost impulse after a lazy balances season: loans do not react and the multiples became difficult to justify. Therefore, many investors began to rotate more solid sectorssuch as energy or regulated, where the foundations are more consistent.
Today, The lack of clear drivers Limit local bets. The exception could be the October electoral process, which, if confirming a consolidation of the libertarian ruling, could activate a New Argentine Assets Rallyespecially those punished by the regulatory uncertainty of recent years.
USA: Weak consumption and Fed on radar
The global panorama also offers a mixed board. In the US, growth loses traction: consumption cools, although personal income is supported thanks to specific transfers. At the same time, the inflation measured by the PCE goes back to 2.1% per year, which enable possible feat cuts by the Fed in the second semester.
In the midst of commercial tensions with China and Europe, and given the proximity of the electoral process, global investors take refuge selectively. While The most conservatives are positioned in short-term T-Bills and Investment Grade bondsaggressive profiles They maintain exposure to leaders (such as Apple, Microsoft or Google) and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices, which continue to mark historical maximums.
Some keys according to the risk profile
For those who invest in the local market, a moderate strategy may include Negotiable obligations in solid emitters pesos as Ypf or telecom, that offer positive real rates. Also the Short Lecapswith monthly yields of the 2.2%-2.6%they are a valid coverage tool against inflation that yields.
On the other hand, the riskiest profiles could bow down a mix of Sovereign bonds in dollars (such as the GD35 or the AE38) together with actions of the energy sector, which is emerging as one of the most solids of the new economic cycle: YPF, Pampa Energía and TGNO4 They appear among the most recommended.
For global investors, North American assets continue to offer differentiated opportunitiesbut they demand selectivity and timing. Diversify in geographies and sectors remains a decision as tactical as strategic.
The Timing value
In a 2025 that still does not offer structural certainties, the slogan seems clear: diversify, adjust the risk to the profile and observe carefully. Macro stability begins to show signs, but the market has already made it clear that The entrance timing can make all the difference between a prudent investment and a bet without return.
Partner in AT Investments
Source: Ambito
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