It is not gold, but shines: the silver returns to the radar

While the governments of the world continue printing money without brake And fiscal deficits seem to have no limits, precious metals They continue to win prominence. This week, silver played maximum Not seen since 2012.

Let’s start by the graph:

The price just break the US $ 36 per ouncemaximum in 13 years, and accumulates a rise greater than 23% so far this year. There is no more bullish indication than this movement. That is, analyzing the graphic the conclusion is evident: it has a long time since being invested in silver.

The interesting thing about all this is that, in addition, the foundations are still intact. Silver and gold are almost brothers: they share the role of refuge, They respond to the same macro imbalances and usually move in tune when things are complicated. The first thing to understand is that silver usually follows gold, and that is no accident.

I have been talking about gold and its virtues for a long time: it is a shelter against the loss of value of money, to the fiscal deficit, to the tax rise, to inflation. All that combo gives strength to gold. And, by drag, also to silver.

Now, there is a difference: La Plata is more linked to the real economy. It is not just an asset that is saved in vaults. It is also used. It is in the Solar panels, electric cars, medical devices and technology. And that makes it more volatile, more sensitive to economic cycles, but also more explosive.

Metals flew in recent months because the market began to read something very clear: The US fiscal disorder will not only be corrected, but probably aggravates.

Trump presented his famous “Big Beautiful Bill” (Or as they say on Wall Street: Big Bill, because it will be very expensive), with tax cuts, more safety expense and a projected deficit of more than USD 2 Trillions in the next 10 years.

To that add a Public fight with Elon Muskthreats to break millionaire contracts and an increasingly polarized congress. Result: More doubts, more distrust.

And that is seen in the graphics: while the bond rates go up, the dollar falls. That Break the historical patternwhere greater rates brought more demand for dollars.

GRAPH DOLLARS.PNG

What is the market doing then? Look for refuge in real assets. That is why gold and silver began to capture strong flows. Because if the dollar ceases to be the “safe” asset, metals capture more attention.

Is this a bubble?

Nothing of the sort. La Plata has been climbing with solid foundations. Besides, There is still no euphoria or retail fever, something typical of bubbles. Is it traveled? Yes, and a lot. He is reacting only now, after years of lagging in front of gold. This seems more like a Trend Confirmation that a roof.

How to invest in silver? If you want to join this movement, you have several alternatives:

• SLV (Silver ETF): It is the most direct. Replica the spot price of silver. It can already be operated as yielding in Argentina, which is great news for local investors.
• SIL (ETF of silver miners): more volatile, but with more route: if the silver rises 10%, the miners can rise 30%. It is not available as yielding, but in international brokers such as Interactive Brokers.
• Individual actions: in Argentina via Cedears it only lies Paas (Pan American Silver), one of the world’s largest producers. In international brokers are all possible alternatives, such as AG (First Majestic Silver) and HL (Hazla Mining)

Eye with this: the mining companies not only depend on the price of silver, but also on their operational costs, debt and other variables. But if the metal continues to rise, It will be difficult not to accompany.

The macro environment It is still favorable for metalssituation that started a while ago. And nothing suggests that this will change in the short term.

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Note: The material contained in this note should not be interpreted under any point of view as an investment council or recommendation for the purchase or sale of a particular asset. This content has only educational ends and represents only an opinion of the author. In all cases it is advisable to advise with a professional before investing.