He Argentina country risk It is oscillating in the 600-700 points for More than four months. And although it is a much lower level than reached in previous years, It is still high for the economy and markets to benefit. Within this framework, investors wonder What has to happen for the bearish trend to resume.
From the beginning of 2024 to the minimum of June 2025, the Country Risk collapsed 72% and passed from 2,018 to 560 points. The reason was the Strong price jump of sovereign bonds in dollarsthe variable that shapes the index prepared by JP Morgan.
However, in the middle of the cycle, Country risk started a lateralization processmarking a strip that bothers government plans to restructure debt and do not help companies that seek to finance a low cost, saving certain exceptions.
For the economist Adrián Morenothe government must continue deepening your task of gaining credibility so that the country risk comes out of stagnation and resumes the bass path. And to do so, one of the pillars is the Low of inflationwhich in May marked the slightest data since 2017, without considering the year of pandemic.
“On the other hand, the value of the dollar and the accumulation of reserves to meet the goal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is still present, for now until July with this delay in the review. While the Government manages to maintain the expectations of the market anchored to which it will gather those dollars for the coffers of the Central Bank through a repo or upcoming debt placements in international markets, it should continue to descend the country risk,” the specialist added.
In this line, analysts of Investments Profession They indicated that, with the recent launch of the 2030 Bonte Integrable in dollars, “the economic team seems to have found an instrument that would allow it to compensate for the lack of purchases in the market -free market through the accumulation via debt issuance.”
“If the accumulation of reservations becomes a reality, it would be likely to see a downward trend of the country’s risk towards new minimums of this management. Although the political risk associated with the October elections as an unknown would persist,” they clarified.
For its part, Moreno argued that, as the market knows that the Government will pay in a timely manner the sovereign expirations of July, Fixed income could be revalued and the country risk, reach 500 points by the end of 2025.
“And if Argentina manages to enter shortly an emerging rating, or at least under review, it will also help this country’s risk descend faster,” he said.
Anyway, do not forget that The global context is playing against Argentina. The war conflict between Israel and Iran not only raised the price of oil, but is also leading investors and operators to migrate to shelter.
“The tensions escalation in the Middle East complicates the international panorama, so it is not surprising to observe a risk-off bias,” said experts from Personal investments portfolio.
Source: Ambito
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