War between Israel and Iran: Abrupt Urbenwende in Middle East: ceasefire instead of escalation

The world just kept your breath away whether the war between Israel and Iran is going out of hand – US President Donald Trump announced the end of the “twelve -day war”. Just two nights earlier, he had the extremely secure Iranian nuclear facilities attacked with the strongest non -atomic bombs in the world. But then the sheet turned.

An attack as the beginning of relaxation

At first the worst fears seemed to be true when Iran attacked the largest US military base in the region in Qatar on Monday evening as retaliation. What initially appeared as an expansion of the war to the whole region soon turned out to be a rather symbolic attack on Tehran’s face.

In fact, an end to the war should correspond to the interests of Israel and, above all, Iran. The country was almost defenselessly at the mercy of the militarily superior Israel. Whether the war will really be ended remains uncertain. Because the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is still completely unsolved.

Trump announced that the Iran had warned the United States before the attack in Qatar. For this he thanked the government in Tehran that there were no injuries or deaths, he wrote on his platform Truth Social. Qatar emphasized that air defense had intercepted all rockets.

According to reports, both Iran and Israel agreed with the ceasefire. When they accused each other of having broken and threatening further attacks, Trump bursted the collar. “These guys have to calm down,” he said in an interview with journalists before his departure to the NATO summit in the Hague. “We have two countries that fought so long and so hard that they don’t know what the hell they are doing.” In English, Trump literally said: “They don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.”

Trump criticizes Israel unusually violently

However, Trump made an unusually sharp accusations of Israel, which had reached him with severe air raids on Iran quickly before the ceasefire began. “As soon as we closed the agreement (the ceasefire), Israel came out and threw a load from bombs,” he said. “I’m not satisfied with Israel.” He was also not satisfied with Iran. But Israel’s actions made him “really dissatisfied”.

Israel still attacks

After a media report, the Israeli Air Force still attacked a destination north of the Iranian capital Tehran. The Israeli news portal “Ynet”, citing Israeli circles, reported that a radar system was shot at there. Shortly afterwards, it was announced that Israel had dispensed with further attacks on Iran after a conversation Netanyahus with Trump.

The day before, Netanyahu had emphasized that his country needed several days to reach all of his war goals. The ceasefire came surprisingly quickly. According to the “Operation Rising Lion”, Israel wanted to prevent Iran from building an atomic bomb and has ballistic rockets. It was unclear whether these goals were achieved. It was said from Israeli security circles that the massive Israeli air strikes since June 13 and the US attacks with bunker-polluting bombs had thrown the Iranian nuclear program back for years.

What will become of Iran’s nuclear program?

Trump denied a reconstruction of the Iranian nuclear facilities. “Iran will never rebuild its nuclear facilities,” the Republican wrote on his Truth Social Platform – completely in capital letters, which sounded more like a command than a determination.

However, completely different tones came from Iran. The head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency (AEOI) Mohammed Eslami in the state broadcaster Irib said that the production process in the nuclear facilities in the nuclear facilities. The damage to the facilities is currently still being determined.

Remaining 400 kilograms unknown

According to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA, Iran has more than 400 kilograms of uranium, among other things, with an almost armed degree of purity of 60 percent. Its whereabouts is unknown. According to diplomats, several atomic bombs could be manufactured if the material was further enriched to 90 percent, which is considered a relatively small step. Tehran insists that they do not want to build nuclear weapons, but only to pursue a civilian program. But no highly enriched uranium is needed.

The extent of the destruction after the attacks of Israel and the United States on the country’s nuclear facilities is also still unclear, according to experts. The United States, for example, had attacked the underground uranium enrichment facility Fordo with bunker -breaking bombs. Trump then spoke of the full destruction of important systems. This is not confirmed.

Dead in Israeli attacks shortly before ceasefire

According to the Iranian sources, at least nine people in the Northern Iranian city quickly killed in Israeli attacks shortly before the start of a ceasefire. 33 people were injured in the attack on a residential area, the news agency Tasnim wrote. State media also reported that a senior Iranian nuclear scientist had been killed in Israeli attacks in the morning.

Four dead in Israel through Iranian rockets

Shortly before the ceasefire, the mighty revolutionary guards also fired six rocket salvings on Israel. According to a local ambulance service in Beerscheva, at least four people were killed and 20 more injured. It was the longest Iranian rocket attack wave since the beginning of the war.

Many victims and high damage

Overall, 950 people have been killed in Iran, where there are hardly any shelters, since the beginning of the Israeli attacks, according to human rights activists. Official bodies in Iran, on the other hand, spoke of 610 deaths and 4,746. In Israel there were 28 dead and more than 1,300 injuries by Iranian rockets. The material damage is also high in both countries.

Qatar mediated agreement on ceasefire

According to matching US media reports, the ceasefire also came about thanks to the mediation of the Emirate of Qatar. Qatar maintains good relationships with both Iran and the USA. “This is a war that could have continued for years and who could have destroyed the whole Middle East, but it didn’t come – and it won’t come,” Trump wrote about Truth Social. The name “twelve -day war” proposed by Trump seems to be based on the “Six Day War” of 1967 between Israel, Egypt, Jordan and Syria.

Waffenruhe would be a success for Trump

If the ceasefire should work as described by Trump, this would be a success for the US president. Trump wanted to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. He initially relied on negotiations with Tehran. In the event of a failure, he threatened to attack several times – but it was clear that Trump actually didn’t want war. The Republican did not want to get involved in a conflict in the Middle East again and preferred to concentrate on its domestic and economic agenda. He now wants to do that, as he announced on Truth Social.

Maintenance for Iranian leadership

Even the Islamic Republic, which is massively weakened by Israel’s attacks, probably did not want to escalate the conflict. According to experts, a great war could have threatened the last time of the Iranian leadership around Ajatollah Ali Chamenei himself. Israel seems to be fulfilled by his war goals with a view to the nuclear program – and the leadership in Tehran can stay in power with the ceasefire.