In the Ukraine conflict, Joe Biden, as US Supreme Commander, relies on words rather than deeds. His critics see this as a weakness – above all ex-President Donald Trump. He senses his chance.
In terms of foreign policy, Joe Biden wanted to devote himself entirely to the up-and-coming opponent China – actually. Instead, an old rival is claiming the US President’s full attention. Since the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, relations between Washington and Moscow are the coldest since the Cold War. For weeks, Biden has been warning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine and a war in Europe. Should Putin actually give the marching orders, it could do Biden considerable damage and benefit his fiercest adversary all the more: ex-President Donald Trump. Congressional elections are coming up in November, and Biden is already on the shortlist.
Trump on Putin: “We respected each other”
Trump gave his Republican party the direction to take on the Ukraine crisis on his old home broadcaster Fox News last weekend. Trump argued that Putin’s behavior was emboldened by “probably the most inept retreat in the history of any army.” What is meant is the withdrawal from Afghanistan ordered by the Democrat Biden, which ended in chaos and the return of the Taliban. Trump claimed that if he were President, tensions with Russia would never have escalated to such an extent. “No one has ever been harder on Russia, but I got along well with Putin. Very well,” Trump said. “We respected each other.”
Trump did not mention that critics accused him of treating Putin with kid gloves during his tenure. According to US investigative authorities, the Russian government interfered “in a comprehensive and systematic manner” in the 2016 presidential election, from which Trump emerged victorious. Biden is actually taking a tougher stance on Putin than Trump. However, he makes it clear that he wants to give diplomacy “every chance of success” – and that he will under no circumstances send US combat troops to Ukraine.
Republicans accuse Biden of appeasement policies
Should Putin give way in the conflict, Biden is likely to see this as a success of his strategy, which essentially consists of offers of dialogue and threats of sanctions. During the crisis, he managed to get the 30 NATO alliance states to stand united against Russia – at least so far. In the event of a Russian invasion, Trump’s Republicans would still see their accusation that Biden is too weak a president. They are already accusing him of enabling the completion of the German-Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline by waiving sanctions last year and of having given Putin a great gift.
“Ukraine, the region and the world are in this crisis because President Biden is weak, because he’s appeasing, because he surrendered to Putin last year,” Republican Senator Ted Cruz said recently. This appeasement – in English appeasement – has a negative connotation in historical comparison: British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement policy did not succeed in stopping Adolf Hitler and preventing the Second World War.
Biden’s poll numbers in the basement
In the logic of many conservatives in the US, Biden’s alleged weakness has the potential to cause problems well beyond Ukraine. Trump argued that not only does Putin feel emboldened to threaten Ukraine – the same applies to Chinese President Xi Jinping with regard to Taiwan. “Watch what happens to China and Taiwan very soon,” the ex-president warned. In a commentary, Fox News saw the danger “that Biden’s weakness on the world stage could drag the US into a hurricane of international security crises with massive repercussions”.
Even without such a hurricane, Biden is battered. Almost 13 months after Biden took office, only 41.7 percent of Americans are satisfied with his job, according to statistics from the FiveThirtyEight website, which compiles different polls. Since World War II, only one U.S. president had worse stats at that point in office, and that was Trump. The difference to Biden is only wafer-thin.
US Democrats face severe defeat
Biden has been rather unlucky lately. Important legislative projects have failed due to resistance from his own party. Consumer prices keep rising. Economists fear that the Ukraine crisis could push up inflation in the US via rising energy and gasoline prices. Trump’s Republicans are given a good chance of winning back the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate from the Democrats in the congressional elections in less than nine months. If that happens, Trump should feel emboldened to run again in the 2024 presidential election.
A possible Trump victory in this election in 2024 could also have consequences for NATO. As president, Trump repeatedly criticized the Western defense alliance. He accused NATO partners like Germany of allowing the United States to protect them and not providing enough funds for defense. In the meantime, he threatened the exit of the United States. A repeat of the Trump presidency could shake NATO to its foundations again. There is no question who would benefit from this: Vladimir Putin.
Source: Stern
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