Hope and psychology: New government – good mood in the country?

Despite the failed election of constitutional judges in the Bundestag, Friedrich Merz sees his government on track. The Chancellor said in the ARD a few days ago in the ARD until the summer break. And from the chancellor’s perspective, the “reasonable policy” of the black and red coalition already shows the hoped-for effect.

Before taking office, Merz announced: “It is important that we will improve the mood in the country by summer.” This is exactly what he delivered. A few weeks after taking office, Merz even says: “This is one of the best federal governments that we have had in Germany in recent decades.”

However, many in the country are not yet convinced. A small overview:

What the surveys say …

In a YouGov survey on behalf of the German Press Agency, the institute asked almost 2,200 people whether Germany had been more likely to have changed since Merz’s taking office, rather for the worse or not at all. Result: 22 percent saw a change in the better, 32 percent for worse. Nothing has changed for 37 percent.

The chancellor’s view of “one of the best federal governments” of the past decades has only shared 2 percent, and another 15 percent were more agreed. 71 percent did not agree with the sentence or not at all. 12 percent made no statement.

“A majority is not satisfied with the work of the federal government,” said opinion researcher Peter Matuschek from the Institute Forsa. “The same applies to the work of the Federal Chancellor.” In the recent surveys, CDU/CSU, with 26 to 27.5 percent, are still under their election result from February, the SPD also with 13 to 15 percent.

With a view to the economy, pessimistic expectations are still ongoing, Matuschek adds. “51 percent of Germans are currently assuming that the economic situation in the country will deteriorate, and only 22 percent that it will improve.” The tendency recently shows more down than upwards.

What the institutes say …

The IFO Economic Research Institute actually measures an upward trend with its business climate index: “The mood among companies in Germany has improved,” wrote the institute in June. “The German economy slowly draws confidence.” With 88.4 points, the business climate index was significantly weaker than shortly after the traffic light government took office: in February 2022, despite the Ukraine crisis, it was 98.9 points. IFO boss Clemens Fuest says about the situation today: “So far, the principle of hope has been ruling.”

The consumer mood – measured by the so -called GfK consumer climate – also remains behavior. Economic and income expectations would have improved, but people stayed back when buying and saved instead. “The consumer climate indicator predicts a slight decline of 0.3 points to -20.3 points in July 2025 compared to the previous month (revised -20.0 points),” is the conclusion of consumer researchers.

What the associations say …

According to the general manager Tanja Gönner, the Federal Association of German Industry sees more optimism among companies. “However, the mood is better than the current situation,” says Gönner of the dpa. “For this year we continue to expect a slight recession.” The signs are only more positive for next year.

The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry sees it similarly. “The hoped -for upswing has so far been long in coming, even the current economic data does not give any reason to the all -clear,” says general manager Helena Melnikov. At the same time, she praises the pace at which the new federal government put the first proposals on the table. “That gives hope and shows that there is another way,” says Melnikov.

The Federal Association Consumer Association calls it a mistake that the coalition has not reduced electricity tax for everyone as promised. “Many consumers suffer from the persistently high cost of living,” says director Ramona Pop. “A change in mood only goes with confident consumers – and this requires the clear signal of reducing electricity costs.”

How it could go on …

“Basically, moods can improve very quickly – or worsen,” said opinion researcher Matthias Jung from the research group elections. “For example, credible announcements of measures can be enough for this.”

For many people, the economy remains the top topic, and that could actually score the Union, says Jung. Crucial point for him: “If the government does not manage to collapse, cooperating, oriented towards the matter, then it will not be able to bring about the mood improvement.” The recent scandal about the election of constitutional judges last week made black and red look very dispute.

Forsa researchers Matuschek thinks that the quick changes announced by Merz were not realistic anyway – and people know that too. “It was also a bit measured to announce that you turn your mood within two months.”