The SPD crisis: Is the party still to save, Lord of Lucke?

Lord von Lucke, in polls the bobbits SPD at 14 percent. Trust in the leadership is gone, in the upcoming state elections there are bad results. Was it that with the People’s Party?
Unfortunately, you can say that. The SPD is no longer the party that it once was. It is no longer able to form a government under her leadership on its own. From 1969, the SPD People’s Party, since the first SPD government under Willy Brandt, has always identified this. But that’s history today.

“Ich over,” said Wolfgang Schäuble. So it is a self-lie of the comrades when they pretend that it is just a form low?
Yes, it is actually “over”, namely by the possibility of being coalition in a different constellation than with the little loved Union. That says a lot about the current drama in the country. The deep crisis of the SPD is symptomatic of the government’s crisis.

How do you mean that?
On the one hand, the SPD is essential for the continuation of the coalition. On the other hand, it becomes a risk factor in this government because it is so weak and has no option to get back to strength. It is in the clamp. It is attacked from the left, where the Left Party attracts the barricades with a fundamentalist policy. On the other hand, the SPD loses considerably to the right because its former regular voters, the workers, prefer to choose the AfD or the Union. There is no exit option from this dilemma.

Among the workers, many of them are now obviously better represented by others: 38 percent chose the AfDonly twelve percent the SPD. Even the Union in this milieu performed with 22 percent better. Who has changed more – the SPD or the workers?
The SPD has lost contact with the workers. We see that alone in the composition of the parliaments. One of her founding fathers, August Bebel, was a trained journeyman. For decades there was a high identity between political staff and the class represented by it in social democracy. Friedrich Ebert, the first Reich President, also came from the working class. These times are long over.

Where was the break?
At the latest in 1968, the rise of educational citizens in the SPD and the loss of meaning of the workforce began. It is ironic that Gerhard Schröder of all people came to the Chancellery again and initiated a short red-green era from 1998 to 2005.

What is the biggest problem of the SPD?
The SPD suffers from a double representation gap. On the one hand, their politicians no longer represent the workers. On the other hand, she no longer hits the pitch of her former regular electorate.

Because the most important social issues of the present are no longer rent or wages, but migration? The SPD does not seem to have an answer to being placed in the right corner for fear.
This is definitely part of the problem. The old social question was: How can you reduce the gap between the top and bottom? A classic SPD topic. The AfD has made a new social question: How do we keep the migrants outside? She has almost coded the social question – too “we in there” against “those out there” – and thus achieved a significant part of the workforce. But there is another dilemma for the SPD …

Namely?
The old social question has not disappeared, but reappeared in the robe of the Left Party, which makes too high rents, too little participation and solidarity for the socially disadvantaged.

Is it really just the fault of others? In the past, the SPD stood for the promise “rise through education”. Today she is concerned with redistribution. The all -purpose weapon is no longer education, but higher taxes. Is that the wrong story to grow up again?
Yes, indeed. For those who have to develop their wages very hard, the impression has arisen that the recipients are promoted too much, but not sufficiently challenged. That is why the SPD now has the reputation of taking care of those who are unemployed. SPD boss Lars Klingbeil therefore tries to turn the SPD back into the party of the work that it once was.

But with what profile can this succeed? Should the SPD, as many demanded after the Schröder era, move more to the left again, or should it try to position themselves even more radically?
That is exactly the big question. The SPD has always been a both-as-also party. On the one hand, she stood for basic reforms, on the other hand it always acted pragmatically. She had both a Willy Brandt as a big visionary and pragmatist like Helmut Schmidt. She has lost this ability to use both. Only left is not a solution. Because there the SPD has a competition with the Left Party, which it cannot exceed in the utopian left.

So rather by center law?
Lars Klingbeil is in a trap. As a finance minister, he will be responsible for the narrow federal budget in 2026 – above all financial cruelty. He can hardly wait for the workers to be rewarded. On the contrary: he runs the risk of also being bumped through harder savings that you have been able to hold so far.

Sounds hopeless.
Klingbeil can now try to beat this bridge in combination with a caring co-chair Bärbel BAS as Minister of Labor: “promote and challenge” according to the principle of Gerhard Schröder. Klingbeil stands for demanding, BAS for promoting. But there is another danger for him. Klingbeil is far less strong than it is always shown. And it could weaken it even further if you now raise the social icon Bas on the sign. This discrepancy shows how difficult the SPD finds it to dare to reform tougher reforms on the upcoming major issues – pension, care, civil allowance – and at the same time to be the aim of being the old social party. I don’t see how she can get out of this tornness.

The coalition with the Union for the SPD does not seem to be helpful against its existential crisis. On the contrary, the defeats are increasing. The promised minimum wage of 15 euros, which does not come at first. Or the candidate for the Federal Constitutional Court, which the SPD has not yet been able to enforce. Should the SPD go to the opposition to save itself?
Some in the SPD will now ask themselves the question. But the realists know that the GroKo is almost the last government coalition in the democratic spectrum. And in earlier times, the SPD was not able to get stronger from the opposition. This shows how deep your crisis is.

Do you need new staff?
The SPD still has a rather unimaginative hope, that is Boris Pistorius. I think he is currently keeping his ammunition skilful. There is a lot to be said that it will be called in two years. But Pistorius also had the problem as a candidate that many who appreciate his defense policy with the clear NATO bond would ultimately choose the Union. Just like at that time with Helmut Schmidt, of whom it was ironic in 1976, he was the best candidate the CDU/CSU ever had, and yet in the end more voters chose the Union and Helmut Kohl. Especially since the SPD is now a rather insecure cantonist: When it comes to defense, parts of the base want to be in a different direction than Pistorius.

So what would you advise the SPD?
The SPD has not only largely lost its identification figures, but also the anchorage in all social classes. If she does not succeed in putting social impulses again, then she will not come back to strength.

Lord of Lucke, let us dare a forecast: will the SPD still exist in 20 years?
There are two options. One is the French way. There, the last socialist government under a weak party leader and president François Hollande led to the fact that there was only space for a single party in the middle of France: for “en Marche” by Emmanuel Macron. Since it does not look with us after such a new collection movement of the middle, the Union could take this place in the middle. Like the socialists in France, the SPD would only be an insignificant splinter party.

And the second option?
The other option would be that the SPD from the federal states regenerates as the last after -school care for social democratic strength and also produces new management staff. In 2029 there could be a completely new political situation, a CDU-CSU-led minority government with the SPD in the opposition. Then it could be that the SPD is growing up again for new strength. But let’s be honest: this is just a fairly distant hope for the SPD.