Dilation of the Hisbollah: Is the next crisis in Lebanon?

In Lebanon, the debate about the disarmament of the HISBOLLAH militia supported by Iran is also coming up. The cabinet came together in the capital Beirut to a session in which the question should be discussed. The government had asked the military to “submit a plan” by the end of the year “how gun ownership in Lebanon could be limited to government forces in the future, said Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on Tuesday after almost six hours of cabinet session. Government circles said in the evening, the discussion should be postponed to next week.

In addition to Israel, the United States is pushing for the disarmed of the Hezbollah. Washington tries to obtain this about pressure on the government in Beirut, but does not offer any consideration, said a Lebanese government representative of the AFP news agency. “The United States requires Lebanon to surrender completely in front of the Israeli enemy without any guarantees” for the fact that Israel complies with the ceasefire, it said on Tuesday in the Hisbollah broadcaster Al-Manar.

Before the recent war with Israel, the Shiite organization was one of the most armed non-governmental actors worldwide. In the meantime, it has been significantly weakened and also shrunk its arsenal. President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nauaf Salam as well as the United States and Israel, demand that the Hisbollah give all their weapons to the state army. The Hisbollah rejects this as long as Israel’s troops are stationed in Lebanon and Israel attacks goals in the country.

Since the beginning of the Gaza War in October 2023, Israel and the Hisbollah have had a mutual fire that has developed into a war on its own, parallel. Israel marched into the neighboring country with soil troops and bombed massive destinations, especially in the Beirut area, in the south and east. The Hisbollah in turn attacked destinations in Israel.

A ceasefire came into force at the end of November. According to this agreement, the Hisbollah is to be disarmed in the south and near the border with Israel. The Hisbollah is open to talks about its arsenal, but does not want to agree to any specific schedule as long as Israel’s attacks in Lebanon are ongoing and its troops are not deducted. This was confirmed today in a speech-covered speech.

Israel’s military attacks almost every day in Lebanon on the grounds that they want to enforce disarm. Israel’s soldiers are also stationed at five posts in the South Libanon.

As long as the “Israeli aggression” continues, the Hisbollah could not agree to a proposal for a schedule of disarmament, said Hisbollah boss Naim Kassem on Tuesday in a speech assigned on television. Instead of weakening the Hisbollah and thus the “resistance” against Israel, the government should make plans to oppose the “pressure and threats”.

The demand to disarm the organization across the country is politically highly risky. The Hisbollah has hundreds of thousands of supporters and still great influence, especially in the Shiite community. If a decision on the disarmament, Hisbollah members-who is also a political party in addition to a militia-could leave the government in protest. Therefore, there are fears that the Lebanon could slip into the next political crisis in such a scenario.

From this argument, all of Lebanon will emerge either as a winner or as a loser, said Kassim. “We will all win together or lose together.”

Some supporters of the Hisbollah were on the evening with flags from the organization in the Beirut area. Troops from the Libanese army were used to prevent the wearing of these flags.