Presidential election: Bolivia: Squal election between two opposition candidates

According to preliminary results, a runoff election will decide on the future government in Bolivia. In the first round, none of the applicants achieved the required majority, as the electoral authority announced after counting around 90 percent of the vote. But it is already clear that after almost two decades of left -wing governments, a political change of direction in the South American country is imminent.

On October 19, the two candidates compete against each other, who received the most votes in the first round. These are Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira from the Christian Democratic Party “Partido Demócrata Cristiano”, which is attributed to the political center, and ex-President Jorge Quiroga from the right-wing party “Libertad Y Democracia” (freedom and democracy).

Global meaning and opportunities for Germany

The emerging political change of direction also attracts international attention: the South American country has the world’s largest lithium reserves. Lithium is a central raw material for electric cars and batteries. It therefore plays an important role for the global energy transition.

So far, however, funding has progressed slowly, and a change of government could make investments easier. “You sit in the starting blocks,” says Bolivia expert Christina Stolte from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) with a view to German companies.

Economic crisis, high poverty and political power struggle

Bolivia is in a deep economic crisis: a lack of petrol and foreign exchange, high inflation and lack of medication shape everyday life. The left -wing government focused on subsidies, especially for fuels, which put a strain on the state budget.

Bolivia is also one of the poorest countries in South America, particularly affected rural and indigenous regions. Violence against women and girls is high, and because of the poor economic situation there are always protests. Around 12 million people live in the internal state, which is about three times the size of Germany.

Politics had long been shaped by the power struggle between ex -President Evo Morales and the outgoing head of state Luis Arce of the left party “Movimiento al Socialismo” (MAS) – both did not compete for various reasons.

Arce withdrew before the choice for falling popularity. Morales was no longer allowed to compete because of the constitutional term of office. In addition, he sees an arrest warrant for sexual abuse of a minor and has therefore been in his stronghold in Cochabamba for months, where followers protect him.

Two moderate opposition candidates compete

Against this background, two experienced opposition politicians compete against each other in the runoff election: Rodrigo Paz Pereira, son of former President Jaime Paz Zamora (1989–1993), plans to continue the political tradition of his family and to open the economy. The economist relies on institutional reforms and a moderate modernization program that is intended to facilitate foreign investments.

Quiroga, who was briefly president from 2001 to 2002, competes with an economic liberal course. The industrial engineer wants to reduce the deficient state sector, implement selective privatizations and gradually reduce fuel subsidies. He is also open to cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In addition to Quiroga, the entrepreneur Samuel Doria Medina was originally a favorite for the runoff election. The fact that Paz has prevailed is considered a surprise.

Stability instead of radical upheaval

Unlike in Argentina, with the radical course of President Javier Milei, the Bolivian electorate strives to “not revolution, but stability”, according to KAS expert Stolte. The ethnicity of the ethnicity hardly plays the role of Morales, which was the first indigenous president for 13 years (2006 to 2019).

According to the 2012 census, 41 percent of Bolivians are over 15 years of indigenous origin, estimates from 2017 assume around 48 percent. Even before the election, many indigenous people, which used to be part of the MAS, announced their support for the opposition.

The parliament was also re -elected

In the side of the coordination, incidents occurred. The left-wing candidate Andrónico Rodríguez was attacked with stones after his vote by alleged supporters of ex-President Morales. A few hours earlier, the detonation of an explosive device had been reported in the same place. At first there was no information about injuries. In addition to the presidential election, a new parliament was also determined.