War in Ukraine: difficult considerations: German soldiers in Ukraine?

Before the new Ukraine talks in Washington, the discussion about the participation of German soldiers is picking up speed when securing a possible peace solution. The Federal Government also emphasized that there must be only a breath that would be canceled after years.

“That is why Ukraine naturally needs robust security guarantees. The question of the specific design is extremely complex,” said deputy government spokesman Steffen Meyer in Berlin. It is about political and technical questions “which must be discussed very specifically”.

Before the conversation of the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj with US President Donald Trump, Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul in the “Table.Today” expressed a skepticism for sending German soldiers in Ukraine. He referred to an increased role of the Bundeswehr in NATO, including a fight brigade – around 5,000 men and women – in Lithuania. A deployment in Ukraine would “probably also overwhelm”.

He later made it clear in Tokyo that it was open at the moment whether German troops would be sent. “That really has to be negotiated,” added WadePhul.

Strategic trap: Europeans could weaken the eastern flank

Military planners and scientists have been dealing with concepts for securing a possible new chapter in the Ukraine War for months, which can range militarily from an armistice to a peace treaty. Politically, the range ranges from the naming of factual control over areas to binding under international law.

A concern of the military planners is that Russian President Vladimir Putin could lure the European NATO countries into a strategic trap. Because for a Ukraine protection force – in which the Bundeswehr could participate as well or bad as other European NATO armies – parts of the east flank such as the Baltic States would have to be exposed.

Signal of the strength can disclose weaknesses

The Science and Politics Foundation (SWP) analyzed models to secure a possible ceasefire in Ukraine in February. The SWP security researcher Claudia Major wrote there, so far there were no conclusive ideas.

“What Europeans can provide ad hoc would not offer credible protection,” she said in her study. For a deterrent, an “additional western ideal contingent thickness of around 150,000 soldiers” would be necessary for a deterrent.

Major warns: “A” bluff and pray “approach (bluffing and praying), which uses too few troops and essentially on the hope that Russia does not test it, would be negligent and increases the likelihood of war in Europe.”

For this reason and to reflect militarily, it quickly became clear that it could not be possible without the USA. Germany also rely on strengthening Ukraine militarily and enable self -defense.

Because that is also what the Europeans are concerned with: Russia must not prevail with demands that weaken Ukraine militarily. This also includes regional censures in which Russia receives land beyond the expanded front line – and thus also smashed the defense positions of Ukraine, which have been expanded for years.

The debate picks up speed

In Germany and Europe, the public debate went on the spot for a long time. In security policy, it would not be the first time that something seems to be a long way off and then unexpectedly quickly stands at the door. The discussion hits a sensitive nerve.

Germany also has to take part in securing a peace solution in Europe – “especially if there is the reinsurance of the Americans for this,” said CDU specialist politician Roderich Kiesewetter in “Focus Online”.

The SPD foreign politician Adis Ahmetović was open to the option in the “Spiegel” that the Bundeswehr participated in a later peace mission in Ukraine, his party friend Ralf Stegner was against it.

AfD boss Alice Weidel warned on X that Germany could become a target himself, while the United States is backing up and demanding: “Germany needs to compensate for Russia instead of permanent confrontation.”

Left-wing boss Jan van Aken, on the other hand, brought up an UN blue helmet troop as an observer mission of 30,000 to 40,000 soldiers as a security guarantee for Ukraine. It would be important that China participated, because Russian soldiers would not shoot Chinese, said van Aken in Berlin. In contrast, for historical reasons, he would have “grumbles” for historical reasons, because it would again be “shortly before Stalingrad”.