Schwarz-Rot: Coalition starts in phase two: How hot does autumn get?

For some government members, the summer break was very short, for others it hardly existed. This Wednesday, the still young alliance of the Union and the SPD has been going to get rid of the first cabinet meeting in the Ministry of Defense’s rooms for more than three decades.

On Thursday and Friday, the board members of the two parliamentary groups in Würzburg will meet to prepare the second half of the year. And a meeting of the coalition committee is planned for Wednesday next week.

After the bumpy warm -up phase in the first 100 days, the coalition praised improvement. “I am not satisfied with what we have done so far. It has to be more,” said Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) at the weekend. From social reforms to the enlargement of the Bundeswehr to tax policy, there are numerous construction sites and high expectations of the economy and the people in Germany.

Compulsory military service: only “in the direction”

The start of the second round is not so round for black and red. At a symbolic cabinet meeting in the Department of Defense, Merz and his ministerial ranks want to get the military service law on the way.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) initially wants to use 80,000 to 260,000 soldiers in the aim of increasing the Bundeswehr. The Union wants an automatic reintroduction of the exposed conscription if certain target brands are not achieved in the strength of the troops.

Foreign Minister Johann WadePhul (CDU) therefore had a veto against the military service law at the end of last week, but he withdrew on Monday. Pistorius will now make his template unchanged. The differences are not off the table, even if Chancellor Merz emphasizes that “in the direction” is agreed. CDU/CSU parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn made it clear on Monday that he still has a need for discussion in the parliamentary process.

Judge election: Solution in sight

With this issue, the Union and SPD stumbled into the parliamentary summer break in July. Parts of the Union faction stood against the SPD candidate Frauke Brosius-Gersdorf and opened the election of three constitutional judges. The constitutional lawyer Brosius-Gersdorf has meanwhile avoided her nomination for a post in Karlsruhe. The SPD is said to have found a replacement candidate. However, the Union still has to agree.

Finances: dispute over higher taxes for rich

A new topic of conflict was added during the summer break. Federal Minister of Finance and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil does not exclude higher taxes for top earners and wealthy in order to conclude a gap of more than 30 billion euros in budget 2027. “No option is taken off the table,” said the SPD politician in the ZDF “summer interview”.

The coalition partner CSU in particular reacts reflexively. CSU boss Markus Söder countered in the ARD “Summer Interview”: With the CSU there will definitely be no tax increases. This is “firstly a pipe crepe, secondly the wrong way, and yet, after we have just reduced taxes, everything would break everything again.”

However, Chancellor Merz sounded less categorized when he only explained at the weekend in the party congress of the Lower Saxony CDU: “With this federal government under my leadership, there will be no increase in income tax for medium-sized companies in Germany.” And the CDU budget politician Andreas Mattfeldt was even open to Klingbeil’s position in the “Bild” on Tuesday: “I consider it personally to be justifiable to increase the so-called rich tax-but only if necessary social reforms are implemented in return.”

The welfare state: Union insists on reforms in civil allowance

The thickest board of the second half of the year should be the question of whether and how the coalition can get a large reform of the citizens’ allowance and other social benefits. CDU general secretary Carsten Linnemann is already drawing a parallel to the “Agenda 2010”, with which the red-green government of the then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder brought the economy going again in the early 2000s. However, it also meant far -reaching social incisions and became a permanent burden for the SPD.

The “autumn of reforms” will decide whether politics is still reformable, says Linnemann. Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Bärbel BAS (SPD) has now deployed a commission to make reform proposals for social benefits such as citizen benefit, housing benefit and child surcharge. By the end of the year, it should be clear where the coalition is going on this topic.

Klingbeil also says that reforms are necessary. But it is not possible to only delete when it comes to citizenship. Rather, in the end it must be an overall package that will challenge everyone in society. “It cannot be that you say something with those who have little, you are still doing something, and with those who have a lot says you don’t have to do anything.”

Mood in the coalition: there is room for improvement

In particular, the judge’s election failed before the start of the summer break had some observers already drawn in parallels to the bad mood in the previous traffic light government.

Klingbeil assumes that the issues will continue to “jerk” in the future. Federal Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) has a proposal ready how to get together: “I would stimulate that not all top politicians are constantly reading the social media contributions of others,” he told the magazine “Stern”. “Harmony instead of hyperventilation could be a motto for autumn.”