In 2008, the West let Vladimir Putin go through with South Ossetia’s secession. 2014 annexation of Crimea. If the West now lets the Kremlin masters swallow up eastern Ukraine with impunity, a limit would be crossed after which Putin will know no stopping, says historian Nikita Petrov.
Vladimir Putin started the war in Ukraine on Thursday night. The Kremlin master has crossed the Rubicon, says historian Nikita Petrov. The deputy chairman of the human rights organization , which the Kremlin banned in Russia last December, is certain: If the West does not act in concert now, we can expect further annexations. Because the view of the world and its history that Putin demonstrated follows a criminal logic that other figures in history have already demonstrated.
star: Mr. Petrov, humiliated, insulted, wrongly punished: With this rhetoric, Vladimir Putin stirs up the inferiority complex of his nation, which after the collapse of the Soviet Union is already mourning the loss of Russia’s world standing. Hitler used this method after the First World War. The perceived injustice of the Versailles Treaty brought him to power. Do you see parallels there?
In fact, what Putin says about Ukraine is almost identical to what Hitler said about Czechoslovakia in 1938: a state whose existence in its current form threatens peace in Europe. A minority of people who are threatened and discriminated against and who are cooped up against their will in this state. A leader who can no longer look at the misery and poverty of this minority. You only have to replace the word Sudeten Germans in Hitler’s speech with Ukrainians and you have Putin’s speech in front of you.
Ultimately, the rhetoric of invaders and avengers is always the same. She denies the land of desire the right to exist. This is how the attacker justifies his aggressive actions. This is a universal method.
Putin sees himself as a great historian. Isn’t he able to learn the lessons of history?
He has taken the position of an aggressor. And when aggressors have been punished in the past, he thinks it won’t affect him.
What are we threatened with now?
The problem is that with the declaration of independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, Ukraine is freed from any obligations of the Minsk Agreement. A preliminary point was made on this matter. Ukraine knows that it faces a powerful enemy and it must arm itself. If Kiev wants to become a nuclear power again, this would be the right signal. And Russia could not prevent this except with a war.
Putin has now started the war. Also on the grounds that one cannot allow Ukraine to become a nuclear power.
But this war will be deadly for Russia. Ukraine will defend itself to the last breath. And the West will now see that there is no more room for concessions. Otherwise Putin won’t know where to stop. Next, the north of Kazakhstan or the Baltic States fall victim to it. A strong signal is required from the western states: the indispensable support of Ukraine, including military support.
Has the West given Putin a free hand for too long?
The West made the cardinal mistake in 2008 when Putin granted South Ossetia independence. Only thanks to the weak attitude of the West in this case was the subsequent annexation of Crimea possible, as well as the current events in Ukraine, where part of the country is openly occupied. And tomorrow Putin is making demands on Kazakhstan: he can also claim old Soviet gifts there. “Who installed Kazakhstan as a state?” we will then hear. A large Russian minority also lives there. And after that, Putin will turn to the Baltics.
The Rubicon now runs through Ukraine. If Putin is not stopped now politically, militarily and economically, then we are in for even worse.
Didn’t Putin already cross the Rubicon in 2008? They let him get away with South Ossetia, they let him get away with Abkhazia, they let him get away with Crimea.
Yes, he already crossed the first Rubicon back then. After his Munich speech, it was already clear that Putin would take a confrontational course. But unwillingness to go to war is so ingrained in the West that they fell into the same trap as the European powers did in 1938, when they ceded the Sudeten Territories to Hitler in the hope that he would then honor the treaties and keep quiet. And half a year later he marched into Prague.
We have already seen a personality like Putin in history. And we know what his signature was worth. We must learn lessons from the past.
So why is the West so indecisive?
People judge by their own standards. If a reasonable person doesn’t want war, then he thinks that other people don’t want it either. So you negotiate. But every negotiation with Putin is a concession. He stages war situations and dictates his conditions. And everyone runs around and tries to pacify him. He was pacified in 2008, and then came Crimea.
Is Putin now conducting a bizarre experiment to see if the West is willing to do more than impose sanctions on a few oligarchs?
Out of question. This is a deliberate escalation to test the West and keep itself in power. And there will be a sequel. Next, the discussion will begin as to how exactly the borders of the new republics should be drawn. Putin will continue to play his nerves game.
How to end this game?
Only with an unshakeable determination. The West must unanimously make it clear that there are no more negotiations, just open confrontation. Putin gives a damn about sanctions against individuals or companies. The past few years have shown that only too clearly. Russia could have been expelled from the US Security Council, expelled from the UN – just as Germany was once expelled from the League of Nations. The Soviet Union after the invasion of Finland in 1939.
Similar strong measures would now be required! So far, however, I have seen an astounding helplessness on the part of the international authorities. It would be right to give Ukraine nuclear power status. And one can already ask about the positioning of attack units in Ukraine and other neighboring countries of Russia. The Kremlin is screaming all the time that they don’t want that under any circumstances. But then you shouldn’t behave like that. Now the West must be consistent. Now the Kremlin is the enemy of all Europe. And Europe has the right to defend itself.
What happens if NATO cannot bring itself to act decisively? Will Putin actually dare to attack the Baltic countries, as many fear? The Baltic countries are members of NATO.
The Kremlin will assume it has nothing to fear. What other conclusion should the Kremlin strategists come to? If Moscow could handle both the annexation of Crimea and the secession of Luhansk and Donetsk. That would be construed as total impunity. Today the world faces a choice. The decision will decide the future of Europe.
Read in the first part of the interview with Nikita Petrov how Vladimir Putin distorts history to serve his purposes.
Source: Stern
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