Location at a glance: How capable is the coalition of the willing?

The western supporters of Ukraine continue to advise on peacekeeping for Ukraine in Paris. Although there is currently no end to the Russian war of aggression, France’s President Emmanuel Macron wants to drive the plans and demonstrate the United States to take responsibility. And a signal should also go out on Moscow.

However, it is questionable whether this succeeds, because the so -called coalition of the willing has already met several times without concrete promises or results. It is about what military security guarantees for Ukraine could look like after a ceasefire or peace. This includes strengthening Ukrainian defense ability, but also the possible posting of troops to Ukraine or close to its limits as well as other sanctions against Russia. The main burden of an assignment would bear the European NATO members.

Macron: Preparations for guarantees completed

Already on the eve of the Paris meeting, Macron announced that the supporters had completed their preparations for security guarantees. Thanks to the preparatory work of the army cheers since the Ukraine summit in the White House, the Europeans are now ready to give Ukraine security guarantees as soon as a peace agreement is signed, Macron said at the reception of the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj in Paris.

“The contributions that prepared, documented and this afternoon were confirmed at the level of the Defense Minister under the strictest confidentiality that this work has been completed and will now be politically approved,” said Macron.

Access from Washington is a long time coming

The Europeans had repeatedly made it clear that it would not be possible without reinsurance through the United States. After Selenskyj’s recent visit to Washington, who had the heads of state and government of the most important European allies in tow, it looked as if US President Donald Trump could be moved to it. But concrete commitments from Washington are long in coming. After the Paris meeting, he should be informed by phone.

Some European heads of state and government also seemed to be reduced again. For example, statements by the British Prime Minister Keir Stranders and Macron had sounded as if the two NATO members could send a kind of defensive peace force. But there is now more talk of a training and educational mission. According to the Élysée Palace, there will be no concrete announcements of how the security guarantees are now to be designed, even after the recent meeting.

Merz only takes part in the meeting virtually

The enthusiasm of some coalitioners seems to disappear. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) and probably also the British premier only want to participate virtually in the meeting.

Nevertheless, NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte was optimistic. He soon expects an agreement on a concept for security guarantees for Ukraine. It should be expected that “tomorrow or soon after tomorrow there will be clarity about what we can do together, he said the previous day of the consultations. That means that we can exchange ideas with the American side even more intensively,” said Rutte after a meeting with Estonia’s President Alar Karis in Brussels. Accordingly, the Europeans together with other countries are in the process of clarifying the last details at the level of military chiefs, minister of defense and heads of state and government.

Karis confirmed that Estonia was willing to provide soldiers for a possible European peace force. “We continue to participate in this planning,” he said.

Putin remains with old demands

Whether there is a peace solution at all remains open. At a press conference in China Selenskyj, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin asked Moscow to talk to him – but only when everything was negotiated at the lower level. At the same time, he refrained from legitimacy. Kyiv rejected the demand for a meeting in the Russian capital as “unacceptable from the outset”.

With regard to the negotiations, the Kremlin chief also gave himself hard. Russia is ready to continue waging war if an agreement is not agreed that is approved by Moscow, he said. He showed himself to win. The Russian troops would successfully advance along the entire front, but the Ukrainian troops were exhausted, he repeated his thesis of the soon -to -be collapse of the opponent.

Doubting effects

Security expert Ed Arnold from the British thinking factory Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) emphasizes the political importance of the coalition of the willing, but doubts whether the intended deterrent effect of a military operation will develop. In the worst case, he warns that a stationing of European NATO troops can lead to the NATO’s assistant clause exposing as hollow.

“Will the Americans attack a Russian goal because three French soldiers are killed in an incident that the Russians probably represent as an oversight? I just don’t believe that,” said Arnold of the German Press Agency in London. Then Putin could take advantage of the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine to demonstrate that the existing clause of Article 5 of the NATO contract is less resilient than previously assumed.

Germany so far reserved

Germany had last slowed down on the topic. Long -term security guarantees can only be decided if there is a ceasefire or a peace agreement, said Chancellor Merz in the previous week. On the question of a possible postponement of soil troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire, he said that there were no such concrete plans for military use in Germany.