Political crisis in Paris: Question of trust: Fall with an announcement for France’s government?

What was intended as a liberation should probably end in a political debacle: When France’s Prime Minister François Bayrou asked the question of trust in the Paris National Assembly in the Paris National Assembly on Monday, it is difficult to imagine that he and his minority government can survive the vote. France threatens to slide into a dead end. And Emmanuel Macron, who as President cannot be confirmed or disempowered by the vote, would also be damaged. The central questions at a glance:

For the premier, the question of trust is a flight forward. Because as early as next Wednesday, the government must fear mass protests that could end in chaos. For weeks, a diffuse alliance has been mobilizing to “block everything” on the day. In addition, the upcoming negotiations on the savings budget with billion dollars were extremely difficult. It was quite likely that the center-right government will be overturned by the opposition in the coming weeks-like the previous cabinet in the past year.

In order to advance all of this, Bayrou already wants a clear positioning. Instead of having the specific austerity measures coordinate, he calls out the vote for the decision between “chaos and responsibility”. His daring poker: Anyone who fundamentally match the fact that the highly indebted country has to snap the belt closer to him.

Why is the saving pressure in France so high?

With a budget deficit of 5.8 percent, France is far from the European limit of 3 percent. And the EU has a critical look at whether Paris is really serious about saving. The already high public debt has recently risen to around 114 percent of gross domestic product. France is thus the country in the euro area with the highest debt rate to Greece and Italy. In absolute numbers, France has the highest debt mountain in the euro area with around 3,300 billion euros.

The budget draft submitted by Bayrou in mid -July provides for a saving volume of 43.8 billion euros. The repayment payments for the debts alone threatened to become the largest budgetary post, even of the expenditure for education or defense, warned the premier.

Does Bayrou have a chance of winning the vote?

It doesn’t look like that. A simple majority is enough to bring the government to fall. The prime minister had hoped to be able to win the trust of socialists or marine le Pens right nationals with concessions. But they immediately made it clear: not with us. Especially the socialists who had bumped Bayrou to the topic of pension should have enough promises of the premier.

Greens, Communists and the LFI Left Party also want to withdraw trust in the government. Together they all come to 330 votes. The government’s center-right camp has just 210 votes. The only hope of the government should be that many opposition figures contain. But such a scenario is unlikely.

What happens if the prime minister does not get the necessary voices?

If Bayrou loses the question of trust as expected, he must submit the resignation of his government to President Macron. He is then in force and will probably try to appoint a new prime minister as quickly as possible. The preliminary run on the question of trust should have given him time to advance some options.

Nevertheless, the search should be difficult. Because neither Macron’s center warehouse nor the left forces or Marine Le Pens have a majority in the National Assembly. The formation of government is likely to be complicated – especially since coalitions in France are unusual.

In order to get out of the processed position, Macron could also dissolve the lower house and call out new elections. After the unhappy parliamentary new election in the summer of 2024, the head of state has had a lot of look through in the summer of 2024 that he wanted to do this extremely much. An option would still be, should Macron see no other way.

What would the government mean for France?

The country’s political crisis would tighten. It is currently not foreseeable who could combine the various camps as a premier and prevent standstill. New elections would also initially mean instability. This would also be deeply disadvantageous for France because the country has to get its debts under control and a household for the next year Hermuss. If nobody holds the reins in their hands for longer, this could cause further loss of trust in the markets.

Does Macron have to withdraw in a lost vote?

No. The vote is only about the government, not about Macron, who is chosen directly by the people as head of state. If the question of trust fails, it would also be a clap for Macron. The second prime minister in a row would then have been brought down by the opposition. Many should blame the president for the unstable political situation. Because the complicated mixture, in which no political force has its own majority, is a result of the new choice of parliament brought in by Macron 2024.

The left have already requested an early presidential election. Actually, this is only due in 2027. The right -wing nationals are likely to stay covered with all criticism of Macron. Because because of an ongoing judicial proceedings, it is still not clear whether your leader Le Pen should even compete in an election. However, they put pressure on Macron to dissolve the parliament again – in the hope of further voice growth.

What would that mean for France’s partner in Berlin and Brussels?

Government or not – Macron would continue to be on the pusher and the first point of contact. However, because the head of state will have to take care of the crisis at home, he should be shorter on the international stage for the time being and are missing as an impulse. And if the second largest economy does not get its financial problems under control, this would also be a problem for European partners. Firstly, because the French economy and therefore also trading partners would suffer elsewhere. And on the other hand, because France could temporarily become scarce as an important player, for example with big crises such as the Ukraine War.

What happens if the government gets trust?

The government would be strengthened for a short time, but the upcoming savings budget would not be automatically in dry cloths. Because if the different camps cannot agree on a course in the end, Bayrou could still be pushed out of office in a few weeks. It was also Bayrous’s predecessor Michel Barnier in December in Taming around the household.