Political crisis in Paris: France’s government falls

France’s minority government of Premier François Bayrou failed. The center-right cabinet lost a question of trust in the National Assembly. 364 MPs voted against the government, only 194 MPs expressed their trust. Bayrou must now submit the government’s resignation to Head of State Emmanuel Macron. The vote was not about the presidency. Nevertheless, the process is also a slump for Macron.

Bayrou had associated the coordination with a commitment to save. France is highly indebted and has to get his finances under control. Bayrou provides for shortcuts of almost 44 billion euros for the coming year. For this he had also spoken to abolish two holidays. The announcement was broadly rejected by the population.

New prime minister or new parliamentary chamber?

Macron is now compulsory and has to present a new premier as soon as possible so as not to get under too much pressure. He may have been considering some options in the past two weeks. However, the difficulty is that neither its center warehouse nor the left-wing alliance or Marine Le Pens have their own majority in the lower house. With Bayrou, a prime minister fails for the second time within a good year on this tricky political mixture. It is not yet foreseeable from whom Macron could succeed in a stable government.

In theory, a second option is also conceivable: As after the flop of its center forces at the European elections last year, Macron could resolve the National Assembly and call out new elections. The goal would then be to create clearer majority. However, it is unclear whether the voters in France would choose significantly differently after just under a year. It is quite possible that even after a new election, the parliamentary chamber would be split similarly to the current and governance would remain difficult. Coalitions cross -warehouse are unusual in France.

For Macron, a new election would also rescue the risk that Le Pens get the right -wing national or the left -wing alliance. The head of state would then be de facto to appoint a prime minister from their warehouse. While the Premier is currently in the shadow of the president, Macron would have to give power in such a case. It would come to a so -called cohabitation. Macron had emphasized several times in the past few months not to dissolve Parliament again. However, he did not categorically excluded this either.

Economic imbalance threatens to tighten

Not only because political chaos and standstill are threatened, the renewed failure of a government for France is predictable. The highly indebted country urgently needs to consolidate its austerity course and adopt a household for the coming year. If the situation remains politically longer unstable, there is also a risk of loss of trust in the markets, which would also burden France’s finance.

Macron will now look under pressure on the domestic

Despite the international crises, Macron will now look at the domestic view. In the coming days, he will be somewhat shorter on the international stage. Berlin and Brussels have to prepare for less initiative.

The pressure on the head of the state should increase again with the fall of the government. The left LFI already wants to drop it off and bring about an early presidential election. The vote is actually only due in 2027. The right -wing national urges also on elections – either by the dissolution of the National Assembly or a resignation of Macron.

Macron cannot run again for the presidential office in 2027 after two terms. It is still unclear who will send his center forces into the race as the successor. From the moderate camp, many fear that Le Pen could now win the choice after several failed attempts. However, due to an ongoing judicial proceedings, it is still unclear whether the right management figure will be able to compete at all.