Lost question of confidence: again crisis in Paris: The government falls

Defeat without a liberation: France’s center-right government is over after just under nine months. The case of the minority coalition Prime Minister François Bayrou was indicated by asking the question of trust in the National Assembly. Once again France is heading for uncertain fairway. But what exactly does the government fall for the battered country and for Europe?

Does President Macron have to step down now?

No. The position of head of state Emmanuel Macron was not involved in the vote in the lower house. Nevertheless, the government’s failure is a bitter defeat for him. With Bayrou, the second prime minister fell within a year. Michel Barnier, appointed in early September 2024, was brought down by the opposition in December.

Macron, who appoints the head of government as President, has to be accused of complicity. Especially since the complicated political mixture in parliament, in which no camp has its own majority, is due to the new election of parliament in 2024.

The pressure on Macron is likely to rise both on the street and in parliament. Already on Wednesday, an alliance, of which it is unclear, wants to block the country. In the coming week there will be a huge cross -sector strike. Marine Le Pens Right -wing and France’s left warehouse should also use the case to create a mood against Macron.

What’s next in France now?

After the fall, Premier Bayrou must submit the resignation of his government to Macron. It is expected that the head of state leaves the cabinet in office until a successor has been found. Macron may try to appoint a new head of government very quickly after Bayrous’s resignation in order to get out of the line of fire and to avoid political standstill.

Since Macron’s center block, the left warehouse and Le Pens are opposite each other as three large forces without their own majority in the lower house, the search for a new premier should again become a difficult balancing act.

In theory, Macron could also dissolve the National Assembly again and call out new elections. However, he had made it clear several times that he did not want to fall back on this remedy. If all the knits tear when looking for a premier, it is still conceivable that the French are sent back to the ballot box.

What does the government fall for France’s finance?

With the design of a savings balance presented by Bayrou, a change of course should actually be initiated at France’s galloping public debt. Most recently, the public debt rose to around 114 percent of gross domestic product. France is thus the country in the euro area with the highest debt rate to Greece and Italy.

Now there is a delay and weakening of the savings efforts, which should have negative effects on the interest burden of new government bonds and the French economy. The premier had warned that the repayment payments for the debts were threatened to become the largest budgetary post, even about expenditure on education or defense.

What effects does that have on Europe’s finances?

In Brussels, the government crisis is less concerned about the budget. The European Commission had already initiated criminal proceedings last year for excessive debt and fears that the situation could continue to worsen in view of the political situation. The result could then be a renewed loss of trust in the euro zone – even if it is now a significantly more crisis -resistant than in times of the Greece financial crisis.

Does the government case affect the relationship with Berlin?

The upcoming change of government will initially do not change anything to ensure that both countries are closer together after the difficult years under Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Direct effects of the domestic political crisis on cooperation are not expected in Berlin. “The French state will continue to act and will continue to work,” said government spokesman Stefan Kornelius a few hours before the vote. “I think that the ability to act between the two countries is further and the exchange remains tight.”

What does that mean for the support of Ukraine?

France supports Ukraine with military means, financially and by training programs for soldiers. In its Ukraine Support Tracker, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IFW Kiel) has indicated that France has been able to do military, financial and humanitarian government aids of around 7.6 billion euros since 2022 to the end of June 2025 – almost 0.3 percent of its gross domestic product. In addition, there is a share of EU subsidies of around 12.1 billion euros. France has also defended its lower contribution compared to other EU countries and Germany by making strategically important weapons for the defense of Ukraine.

Political paralysis due to a government fall could delay budget plans. Domestic policy debates and repositioning could push foreign policy and thus the topic of Ukraine aids into the background. The western partners and Ukraine can no longer hope for large jumps of the French.

Due to the further weakening of Macron, even more responsibility on Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Europe. Since the United States continues to withdraw from Ukraine support, Germany is now the most important partner of the country attacked by Russia when it comes to arms deliveries and financial support.