War in Ukraine: Drone shot in Poland: Potential for conflict on the eastern flank

With growing unrest in the past few weeks, Poland has observed that drones from the east repeatedly penetrate its airspace. Now the Polish Air Force has taken out: During a Russian attack on Ukraine, several unmanned flight objects were shot down.

In the night of Wednesday – in the middle of a Russian wave of attack on Ukraine – a larger number of drones violated Polish airspace. The army chief command spoke of “more than a dozen”. NATO states that more than ten objects were recorded by the radar in Poland. According to Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, fighter jets then used their weapons against the enemy objects. The army said that several drones had been destroyed. A NATO spokeswoman confirmed that in addition to Polish, NATO air defense workers were used in the defense of the drones.

Several airports were temporarily closed, including Warsaw Chopin International Airport and the airports in Lublin and Rzeszow in the east of the country.

Why does this process have a new dimension?

So far, Poland has regularly had the fighter jets of his own Air Force and the machines of NATO partners stationed in Poland. However, this only served to monitor. For a few days now, air defense has been on willingness. What is new to the incident now is that flight objects in airspace have actually been shot down over Poland.

How often have drones and other flight objects crashed over Poland?

In the past few weeks there have been several incidents in which enemy flight objects have entered Polish airspace. It was only on Monday that ruins of a drone were found in a corn field near the Polatycze village near the border with Belarus. The drone had no explosive load on board and was Cyrillically labeled, it said by the public prosecutor. It was too early to say whether it was a military drone or a aircraft used by smugglers. Nobody was injured.

Already in August a drone had fallen into a field near the Polish village of Osiny and exploded there. The Ministry of Defense spoke of a Russian military drone at the time and accused Moscow of provocation.

The most serious incident occurred in November 2022: At that time, a rocket was killed in the Eastern Polish village of Przewodow and two men were killed. As far as previously known, it was a stray Ukrainian anti -aircraft missile.

Do we know where the drones came from?

According to the Polish government, the drones come from Russia. It was the first time that Russian drones had been shot down above the area of ​​a NATO state, said Prime Minister Donald Tusk after a government meeting of the government.

Even before this confirmation, it was clear that the drones had entered Polish airspace at a time when Russia carried out massive air strikes against Ukraine. The EU and NATO country Poland has a more than 500 kilometer long border with Ukraine.

Was there a specific threat this time – or did Poland want to set an example?

The High Command of the Polish army speaks of the fact that this time it is an unprecedented incident because of the large number of drones. “This is an act of aggression that has presented a real threat to the security of the population,” said a message.

After the incidents of the past few weeks, Poland should also have been concerned with a clear sign. Defense Minister Vladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz had already said on Tuesday that the shooting of drones was “justified”, but the army had to make the specific decision.

Poland is also alarmed because the Russian-Belarussian military manover “Sapad-2025” (Westen-2025) should start on Friday in neighboring Belarus. The Bundeswehr General Inspector, Carsten Breuer, assumes around 13,000 practicing soldiers in Belarus and another 30,000 in the Russian field. According to information from Minsk, however, the maneuver should be reduced to the original plans and moved from the western border to the interior of the country – to reduce the tensions with the West. Poland still wants to close its border with Belarus – for fear of provocations.

What is the risk of conflict potential?

Since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022, Poland and the Baltic NATO members have been afraid of being drawn into this conflict. With the current first airspace injuries with drones on the eastern flank, it remained unclear whether it was technical disorders. Air defense systems can also dissuade the unmanned systems from the course.

The large number of drones of the previous night shows that the situation on the NATO external border shows. European NATO military has been saying for some time that Russia wants to test the reaction of NATO and sow doubts about the will to act. To protect the airspace in Poland, the alliance is currently in use Dutch F-35 starcaps jets and from Germany Eurofighter and Patriot Air Defense Systems.

Can Poland ask NATO support?

Yes. As expected, the government applied for a procedure according to Article 4 of the NATO contract. It provides for advice when a NATO state sees itself at risk from the outside. Specifically, the article says: “The parties will consult each other if, in the opinion of one of them, the integrity of the area, political independence or the security of one of the parties is threatened.”

The article has been used seven times since the alliance was founded in 1949 – most recently on February 24, 2022, the day of the Russian attack on Ukraine. At that time this was requested by Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

The fact that Poland is asking for allianz military support in accordance with Article 5 – as well as a direct military approach by Allianz against Russia, generally – for the time being – as very unlikely – also because this would recover a significant risk of escalation. Article 5 of the NATO contract regulates the assistance obligation in Allianz and states that an armed attack against one or more Allies is considered an attack against everyone.