Second attempt in the Bundestag: What is at stake in the judge’s election

With confidence and a rest of the nervousness, the black and red coalition looks at the election of three constitutional judges planned for the afternoon by the Bundestag. In the second attempt, what failed in the last meeting before the summer break in July. Should the new attempt go wrong, the coalition would shake again to the mark.

The history: symbol for a bumpy start

In addition to the back and forth around the electricity price reduction, the bursting judge is the main reason that the black and red coalition gave a fairly disputed picture in its first months. Shortly before the coordination in parliament, the resistance in the Union against the SPD candidate Frauke Brosius-Gersdorf, among other things, had become so great because of her attitude to abortions that parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn (CDU) pulled the ripcord and provided the election. The SPD saw trust in the coalition shaken. The Potsdam constitutional lawyer later waived her candidacy after some hesitation.

The candidates: two women and one man

With the Federal Administrative judge Sigrid Emmenegger, the SPD has now found a replacement candidate against whom there is practically no objection to the Union. The second SPD candidate Ann-Katrin Kaufhold is seen more critically because of her positions on climate protection and socialization. The possible number of votes against is also assessed as clear. The third candidate was proposed by the Union after the Federal Constitutional Court unanimously spoke out for him: the labor judge Günter Spinner is the substitute for the administrative judge Robert Seegmüller, for whom the Union has not found a majority in the other factions.

The choice: urns are open for two hours

The chosen is chosen. In the end, you will not know how many MPs voted from the individual factions for the candidates. Two conditions must be met to choose a candidate: two thirds of the votes cast must be omitted to him or she. In addition, at least half of all MPs have to be right.

The black and red coalition together with the green 413 seats in parliament – seven less than the two -thirds majority of all members of 420 votes. This means that voices from the left or AfD may be necessary to get a majority. But that depends on the strength in which the factions are actually present.

So that as few MPs miss the election as possible, the urns are unusually long with two hours. They will be opened around 4:20 p.m. The result should then be announced after the counting at around 7 p.m.

Scenario 1: Everything runs smoothly

When all three candidates get through, the coalitioners will fall more than just a stone from the heart. The failed judge’s election has now been placed on the alliance of the CDU, CSU and SPD for eleven weeks. All three parties want to tick off the topic as soon as possible.

The three new constitutional judges have to wait a few more days after an election before they can get their offices in Karlsruhe. The appointment by the Federal President is planned for the beginning of October. The election of the new Vice President of the Federal Constitutional Court is already scheduled for this Friday. Kaufhold is proposed for this post – should she get a majority in the Bundestag.

Scenario 2: A candidate fails

Günter Spinner is the shakyest of the three candidates. The Union is based on the fact that its candidate has the backing of all Karlsruhe judges and is therefore elected. The left is angry, however, because the Union did not want to talk to it about the candidate because the CDU prohibited itself from cooperation with the left with a party decision.

According to parliamentary group leader Heidi Reichinnek, the left is closed behind the two SPD candidates, and the parliamentary group has released the vote at the Union candidate. “Various MPs will vote differently,” said Reichinnek in the ARD “daily topics”.

There are some in the left like the former parliamentary group leader Dietmar Bartsch, who are for a constructive approach. “You can be sure that on the left the choice of the constitutional judges and the constitutional judge will not fail,” said Bartsch on Wednesday on Deutschlandfunk.

And then there is also the AfD, which has no problem with spinners. Because it is a secret choice, you will not know afterwards whether a majority can only be dealt with with the voices of the AfD.

Scenario 3: Several candidates fail

That is very unlikely. Kaufhold is rejected by the AfD, but the left has no problem with it. Emmenegger could get the best result. There are no greater objections to them against them

But if only one candidate fails, that would be a medium catastrophe for the coalition and would heavily burden the start in the “autumn of reforms” called out by Merz.

The Bundestag could make a new proposal in the event of a failure or to make the failed candidate again. However, the Federal Constitutional Court or the Federal Council can also come into play.

This goes back to a draft law on which the SPD, Greens, FDP and Union had agreed before the end of the traffic light coalition in order to make the Federal Constitutional Court more resistant to influence and blockade through constitutional enemies. The core of the reform is that certain rules can no longer be changed with a simple majority. But she also provides for a mechanism in the event that the Bundestag does not get any further.

In this case, the Federal Constitutional Court is first asked for a proposal. If the judge’s position is still vacant three months later, the Federal Council can draw the election itself and decide with a simple majority.

In the case of spinner, the procedure has already reached level two. He is a proposal of the constitutional court. In its failure, the Federal Council could take the issue of action. At Emmenegger and Kaufhold, the Federal Constitutional Court would initially be asked.