Election survey: Survey: AfD in the northeast clearly – SPD loses significantly

The AfD continues to increase in the favor of voters in East Germany. One year before the state election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the party comes to 38 percent in a representative survey commissioned by the NDR. If there were a state election on the Sunday, she would more than double her election result compared to the 2021 parliamentary election and the then election winner SPD with Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig at the top clearly displaced. According to the survey, the red-red coalition, which was ruling in Schwerin, would no longer have a majority with 31 percent. The SPD is only half as strong in voting favor as in the election (19 percent).

In Saxony-Anhalt, where the election was already made in early September 2026, the AfD recently was 39 percent in surveys. And the party recently increased vigorously in the local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia. The ongoing debates about the controversial classification as a secure right -wing extremist, which is on ice until a court decision, and a possible party ban procedure has therefore not harmed the AfD.

Scientists sees growing skepticism in political system

For the Greifswald political scientist Jochen Müller, the high approval values ​​are an expression of now solidified skepticism over the political system. “In many people there is great dissatisfaction with how democracy works. Because they do not see their own position – for example in the migration question – as desired, they fundamentally reject government policy and politicians. This is due to all social classes,” said the university professor.

Nevertheless, he still expects significant shifts in voter behavior until the election in the northeast on September 20, 2026. “There is still a lot of dynamics in. Especially when at the end of the election campaign, the people focus on and the question is who the country should rule in the future,” suspects Müller.

Schwesig wants to go on

This also relies on this, who claims to lead your SPD back to the election victory in order to be able to regulate. As well as the result of the Bundestag election in early 2025, the current survey reflects great dissatisfaction among the population in the east. Your government works hard for economic strength and jobs, for good daycare centers and schools, for stable pensions. “That’s why I’m confident for the state election in one year. Then it is about the future of the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and not about federal politics,” said Schwesig. The AfD relies on hatred and agitation and endangers the country’s stability.

The AfD state chairman Leif-Erik Holm on its part has already sent a declaration of war on Schwesig. He competes against her in her Schwerin constituency, wants to take the direct mandate there and then become a prime minister. “For me it is clear: if we win the constituency, we will rule Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania,” Holm demonstratively confident after his party-internal nomination. The survey shows that more and more citizens are sorry for the “trantant swesy rain” and wanted a change of policy. “We are clear for the turn in the coming year,” said Holm. So far, all other parties rejected a coalition with the right -wing populists.

CDU remains at a low level

This also applies to the CDU, which cannot benefit from the weakness of the SPD. In the survey, the Union remains 13 percent and thus on the historically low election result from autumn 2021. “Our election goal is a change of policy for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, that is, the end of the left. With topics such as economy, internal security, migration and health policy, he wants to win voters and make the CDU the strongest force in MV after almost three decades.

According to the survey, the left, since 2021 junior partner of the SPD in Schwerin, can easily increase compared to the last election and would be 12 percent. For party leader Hennis Herbst a good starting position for preparing for the election campaign, in which his party wants to rising rising rents, expensive food, heating costs, low wages and scarce pensions. Autumn makes the black-red federal government responsible for the growing approval for the AfD: “Where democratic parties do not manage to solve everyday worries and thus regain trust, the fascists of the AfD benefit from the growing dissatisfaction.”

According to the survey, it becomes tight for smaller parties

For the other two in the Schwerin state parliament, parties, Greens and FDP represent, it could be tight with the re -entry into parliament. Both parties are currently being shaken by violent personnel quarrels. In the survey, the Greens are 5 percent and thus exactly due to the threshold, which must be exceeded, the FDP significantly below. The still young alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) sees the survey at 7 percent, so the party would move into the state parliament for the first time. But it is unclear who will compete for the BSW. The previous state chairman Friedrich Straetmanns and Melanie Dango announced their resignation on Thursday on October 11th.

As before in the other East German federal states, political scientist Müller also expects difficult government formation in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania next year. “The electorate has become more heterogeneous and thus also the party landscape. With the sometimes large programmatic differences, it is a huge challenge to close sustainable alliances,” he said.

For survey more than 1,000 eligible voters interviewed

On behalf of the NDR, Infratest Dimap had asked 1 September 18th to 23rd September 1,151 of all ages, educational qualifications and genders in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania by means of computer-aided telephone and online interviews. A total of 674 telephone interviews and 477 online surveys were carried out.

Election surveys are generally always affected with uncertainties. Among other things, waning party bindings and more and more short -term election decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes the weighting of the data collected. Basically, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not forecasts on the election outcome.