Threat from Russia – why the Germans fear

Mr. Ischinger, what surprised you this week?
In terms of recognition of Palestine as a state, there was no longer an attempt to bring about a uniform European stance. In 2008 the EU faced a similar question: Should one recognize Kosovo? Some EU members did not want this at the time, since then the EU has no longer been able to speak in one voice when it comes to Serbia and Kosovo. We promoted ourselves to the sidelines. Now we are experiencing the same. In the future, we simply have nothing to say with the important questions of how things will go on in Middle East.

The UN General Assembly is running this week-the United Nations will be proud 80 years old in a few weeks. In fact, they seem dead than alive these days.
They still live, but they vegetate there. It starts with the fact that more and more countries pay their membership fees too late, pay too little or do not pay at all, especially the Americans. In addition, we have credibility problems. The main task of the UN Security Council is to create security and stability and prevent or end wars. But the Security Council can exercise this task less and less.

But did it not already exist in Cold war?
Of course, the Veto powers sometimes paralyzed the Security Council. But now one has the impression that the great powers are less and less gearing towards their reputation. Do I adhere to international law as an important country in the world to the United Nations Charter? That seems to take a back seat. And yet: the United Nations is by no means superfluous. There are many un-peace missions of military and civilian nature, there are the UN aid organizations, without which the world would be much worse.

What do it actually mean to move the seat of the UN from the United States, the president of which is only contempt for them to move to another country? To Brazil, Indonesia or South Africa?
The UN already have two headquarters, New York and Geneva. Nothing speaks against such considerations, but of course that would cost money again. The crucial point is also that the United Nations in 1945 in New York and the Rockefeller family made the money available to build this great building on the East River is of course an argument for New York. And it also helps to keep the USA on board. I guess: If the UN were no longer in New York, a Donald Trump would not have stopped by.

Do you remember a US president who spoke of the UN stage with so much contempt for the UN?
I find it difficult to do. Of course, we also had a difficult situation 20 years ago. The United States with its allies at the time was accused of massively violating international law because they would wage an unjustified war of attack against Iraq. But at that time the American Foreign Minister Colin Powell took the time to present the arguments before the Security Council that justified the American approach from the then US perspective.

He presented fake evidence of an alleged chemical weapons production of Iraq.
Today we know that many of the claims at that time were not based on facts. I do not want to justify this deception. Based on this example, I only want to make it clear that the United Nations and the Security Council was apparently still given great weight at the time. When we look at today: Russia doesn’t even make any efforts to justify the war of aggression in Ukraine in front of the global community. With what arguments?

Trump has caused a sensation when he wrote that he could imagine a victory of Ukraine. There are two interpretations: Trump now leaves the topic of Ukraine completely Europe and Russia. The other: Trump has at least one “towards Putin”“Dragged. And the retreat of the United States from the negotiation process gives you more opportunities to support Ukraine in military-secret gray area. What does your exegesis look like?
As well as. Trump broke a taboo with his statement, Ukraine could recapture its entire territory, including the Crimea …

… or even go on, as Trump writes.
Correct. This is very far away from what you have heard of leading European politicians recently. Also in Kyiv, where I was, the message was called: you have to see it realistically. Ukraine now gets a certain tailwind if the US President also signals to Moscow: there is no reason to assume that Ukraine will lose war. On the negative side, the concern is that it remains only a verbal blow that the relocation of this statement with the resumption of American arms deliveries or even financial help does not exist.

“Not amused”, Mr. Ischinger, you have one these days about the tweet of one . Then they answered quite undiplomatically: “Do not scare the public to death, which is already frightened.” What do you mean?
I think it is very important that experts on a military and diplomatic level pass through such scenarios as intensely as possible. But unfortunately it is a fact that no nation in Europe is as easy to scare it as the Germans, especially when the word “nuclear” is mentioned. I therefore doubt that we are doing a favor in short social media contributions, which of course can never represent the entire complexity of spreading such horror scenarios. This is water on Ms. Wagenknecht’s mills and others who want to constantly persuade us to slip into a fateful war.

Your opponents would answer that it is about waking up the German Michel …
We have a unfortunately underdeveloped strategic culture of debate in this country. I notice that in my lectures when I talk about deterrent. Then someone reports regularly and says: Oh, now they speak of war policy. And I answer: No, deterrence is an attempt to prevent war. You really have to start with little multiplication tables here. Ms. Merkel said very convincingly to the Germans: I am already taking care of it. This is also why large parts of the public have heard nothing about the need for the Bundeswehr for over 30 years.

Finally, Mr. Ischinger: Where is the positive this week?
The bottom line: that the recent conversation between Trump and Selenskyj was a good one from the Ukrainian President’s point of view. If the personal atmosphere between the two continues, a lot has been achieved.