Nuclear dispute: What does the reactivation of the UN sanctions mean for Iran?

In the conflict of the Iranian nuclear program, Germany, France and Great Britain triggered the mechanism to reintroduce UN sanctions against the Islamic Republic at the end of August. After a diplomatic solution has failed to do so far, punitive measures from 2006 to 2010 should again apply from Sunday (2:01 a.m. CEST). Answers to the most important questions:

What are the consequences of the UN sanctions against Iran?

Iran is already proven with hard sanctions, which are primarily aimed at the energy sector of the oil and gas-rich country. In addition, the country is largely cut off from international payments. With almost 90 million inhabitants, the sanctions plunged the state into a severe economic crisis. It mainly hits the poor population and a dwindling middle class.

The reactivated sanctions include a general weapon embargo as well as numerous punitive measures against individuals and organizations. According to an analysis by the Washington Institute, the economic consequences are likely to remain limited, since Tehran is already subject to a large number of far-reaching US sanctions. Many international companies have long been avoiding Iran out of worry about US criminal measures. However, financial pressure should continue to increase for families with low and medium income.

Why is the Iranian nuclear program so controversial internationally?

For decades, the West has been a dispute with the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program. Israel, the United States and European countries, accuse Iran of striving for nuclear weapons. The Iranian leadership rejects this and also refers to a religious legal opinion by head of state Ajatollah Ali Chamenei, according to which weapons of mass destruction are prohibited.

Western states were particularly concerned about the recently increased uranium enrichment. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran had more than 400 kilograms of uranium with a purity level of 60 percent before the start of the Israeli war against the country. More than 90 percent are necessary for the construction of nuclear weapons. IAEA boss Rafael Grossi repeatedly emphasized that Iran was the only state without nuclear weapons that produce almost weapon-capable material.

Why have the sanctions been reintroduced again?

At the end of August, the Europeans activated the so-called Snapback mechanism, which was anchored in the 2015 Vienna nuclear Agreement. It served to be able to prove Iran again with sanctions if his obligations are not complied with in the context of the Vienna Atom deal. Germany, France and Great Britain are alongside the United States, Russia and China. This provided for a limitation of Iranian uranium enrichment to a maximum of 3.67 percent and strict surveillance. In return, sanctions should be canceled.

During his first term, US President Donald Trump had unilaterally terminated the agreement. At the same time, Trump had new and harder sanctions imposed on Iran. Happed loosening of sanctions and an economic upswing failed to materialize. As a result, the Iranian leadership no longer adhered to the requirements of the deal. It has not been implemented in fact for years. Tehran has therefore criticized the reintroduction of the sanctions as illegitimate.

What does the population in Iran think?

A young entrepreneur in the capital Tehran sees the sanctions with concern. “Everything that leads to an increase in the dollar course is like a nightmare for us because it makes living conditions more difficult and does not allow us to live a normal life.” As an example, she cited high prices for notebooks and cell phones that cannot be officially imported.

The owner of a supermarket said: “The United States and the West want to put great pressure on Iran by activating the snapback to create dissatisfaction with the people.” He fears that the conflict could escalate militarily again.

The state-owned currency Rial had fallen to a record low before the earlier UN sanctions came into force. One euro cost 1.27 million rials on the Free Foreign Foreign Market, as the data from Iranian currency portals emerged. For comparison: ten years ago, when the Viennese atomic deal aroused hopes for opening and upswing, the course was 40,000 rial. The currency has thus lost around 97 percent of its value compared to the euro.

Now escalate the nuclear dispute with Iran?

Israel had waged war against Iran for twelve days in June and bombed central facilities of the nuclear program together with the United States, including the underground Fordo facility. There are different information on the extent of the destruction on the nuclear facilities. US President Trump repeatedly said that Iran’s nuclear skills had been “wiped out”. Iran’s government spoke of serious damage.

Tehran threatened the West in the event of a reintroduction of the UN sanctions with counter-reactions. Conservative forces in Iran, for example, demanded the exit from the nuclear weapon locking contract. However, it is unclear whether the leadership actually goes. In this case, observers expect a significantly increased risk of escalation with the West and the risk of new Israeli attacks.

In the event of a reactivation of the sanctions, the Iranian security council announced that it would announce an agreement concluded with the IAea almost three weeks ago. The government had suspended cooperation after the war. New inspections and a report on the whereabouts of the highly enclosed uranium were central demands of the Europeans for a diplomatic solution in order to avert the sanctions.