Gaza War: Trump’s new peace plan for Gaza: What are the chances?

US President Donald Trump has presented an ambitious plan with 21 points for an end to the Gaza War, which has been raging for almost two years. Several Israeli media have now published numerous details of the proposal that Trump had presented Arab state and government heads on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

Trump himself was very optimistic about the chances of success of the initiative, which also relies on the Arab neighboring countries in implementation. However, resistance to both the right -wing government in Israel and the Islamist terrorist organization Hamas can be expected.

The most important points of the new Trump plan

According to Israeli media reports, the plan provides for a ceasefire in the Gaza War, the immediate release of all 48 hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and the gradual withdrawal of the Israeli army from the coastal strip. Only 20 of the hostages captured in the Gaza Strip are still alive according to Israeli information.

According to the plan, Hamas is no longer allowed to play a role in the future administration of the Gaza Strip, and Israel must not annex the area either. Instead, the coastal strip is to be ruled by a transitional government of Palestinian Technocrats, under the supervision of a new international committee, which is established by the United States in coordination with Arab and European partners.

This is intended to form the framework for the financing of a reconstruction of the largely destroyed coastal strip until the Palestinian Authority has implemented a reform program. Germany, too, was called for the condition that the autonomy authority can play a role in the post -war order.

According to the reports, the plan also provides for an entradicalization of the Gaza Strip, security guarantees of regional partners for Israel and the establishment of an “international stabilization group” in the coastal strip. This is intended to build and train a Palestinian police force, which will later be responsible for security. According to the reforms, a path to a future Palestinian state is also promised as a result of peace negotiations under US mediation.

What role could Tony Blair play in the future of the Gaza Strip?

According to agreed media reports, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair (72) could be given the management of the supervision of the transitional government. As first reported “The Economist”, an internationally supported “Gaza International Transitional Authority” is initially planned for five years. The former head of government of the United Kingdom (1997 to 2007) was recently involved in talks in the White House, and his office has not yet commented on the reports.

Under Blair, British troops took part in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq on the side of the United States, in particular Iraq use caused great criticism in terms of domestic politics. After his resignation from the Office of British Prime Minister, Blair was active for years as a special envoy of the so-called Middle East Quartet (USA, Russia, EU and UN), he was committed to a Palestinian state. According to the reports, he is now said to have been the driving force behind the considerations for the transitional government.

Which points could come across the resistance of the Netanyahu government

The new plan appears as a clear departure from Trump’s start of the year, which, among other things, provided for a relocation of the Palestinian population to third countries. According to the reports, the 21-point plan also provides for an economic development of the destroyed area, but it is said that the Palestinians should be encouraged to stay in the Gaza Strip in order to build up a better future.

This point is likely to trigger anger, especially among the ultra -right coalition partners of the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as a deduction of the Israeli troops from the area. They are already dreaming of a resettlement of the area after a displacement of the Palestinian population.

Several influential western countries such as Great Britain and France have recently recognized a Palestinian state. However, Netanyahu vehemently rejects the establishment of an independent state of Palestine as a threat to Israeli existence. He had spoken out for the fact that Israel keeps the security control of the Gaza Strip. He rejects a future role for the Palestinian Authority as well as a presence of Hamas.

For Israel, however, the plan could offer a way out of the increasing international isolation, which was once more evident in the protests against Netanyahu’s speech before the UN General Assembly. On Monday, the Israeli premier meets again with Trump in the White House, at the latest then he could position himself on the new plan.

Will Hamas play at the initiative?

So far, despite the immeasurable suffering that the Gaza War triggered by her with the massacre in Israel on October 7, 2023, the Hamas has insisted on its conditions for an end to the war. So far, she strictly rejected a requested resignation of the weapons, as well as a course of the Hamas leadership.

A deduction of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip with permanent ceasefire as well as the release of hundreds of security prisoners and the reconstruction of the coastal area with simultaneous intensive humanitarian care would meet part of the Hamas claims. The terrorist organization has already signaled approval of the establishment of a Palestinian technocratic government in the past. According to the reports, the Trump plan provides for an amnesty for Hamas members who are committed to peaceful coexistence with Israel.

In a nutshell: Both sides would have to deviate from previous core demands so that the plan can be implemented. It is still questionable whether they will be ready.