Welfare state: the social construction sites – is there a year of reforms?

The “Autumn of Reforms” announced by the coalition should drag on – it is not canceled. A first law is almost finished, it is said: The new basic security regulated in it should replace the citizens’ benefit.

Minister of Labor and SPD leader Bärbel BAS currently coordinates the citizens’ allowance reform with CDU Chancellor Friedrich Merz because she is a “chief and chief minister”, as BAS said in the Bundestag. “A winter, a spring, a summer, next autumn” would follow the reform autumn, Merz announced in parliament. “We have to reform much longer than just a fall,” emphasized Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil (SPD) in an interview.

Two of the commissions for other “real reforms” (Merz) have started. “A structural reform of the welfare state could make the location more attractive, if only because the uncertainty about future conditions would be eliminated,” says Mannheim economist Nicolas Ziebarth. If you do not change the status quo with health insurance, pension and citizens’ allowance, an increasing increase in social security contributions is threatening, the economists warn.

What are the focus of the social state’s focus is currently on? And what are possible black and red answers? Five points at a glance:

The problem of (un) justice

A main goal of the citizens’ money reform is said to be more justice-according to Merz, Bas and Söder. Merz and BAS have settled disputes about possible savings, it is said. “The citizen benefit is a felt topic,” explains the economist Ziebarth. “Those who do not participate should therefore be sanctioned more.”

For example, BAS wants “noticeable consequences” for those who do not notice appointments. Regional up to half of the dates are affected by the job center. Today, people with civil allowance can be reduced to 10 to a maximum of 30 percent.

The problem of abuse

Increasing abuse of social systems on a larger style. For example, the Federal Employment Agency (BA) has already had more than 600 new and completed suspected cases of gang fraud until August – and the number of unreported cases is increasing. EU citizens, often from Eastern Europe, are lured by gangs, cheaply accommodated, and are used with low employment and abuse of social service. Also tens of thousands of cases of alleged undeclared work plus citizenship money were recently reported in one year.

Bas wants “a hard procedure” and “mafia -like structures”. A means: better data exchange between immigration authorities, job centers and customs. It was only in September that an agency campaign in eight Ruhr area cities aimed at criminal business models with scrap properties and social fraud.

“You can do that, but you don’t solve the structural problems of the social security systems,” says scientist Ziebarth. “The hope seems to be to stop the upswing of the AfD, especially when reforming, especially when it comes to citizenship.”

The problem of the work that is not always worthwhile

In general, it should always be worthwhile when you work more. This is not always the case, as scientists from the Munich IFO Institute criticized again. Citizens’ allowance, child surcharge and housing benefit are not sufficiently coordinated. Work incentives were missing. The system is non -transparent. The researchers say: In some cases, the additional earnings rules hardly incentive. Netto may flow less on the account when working more.

The IFO calls for a transfer system “from a cast” and new rules for additional earnings – around 4.5 billion euros could be saved. So far it is only an expert proposal. But in the welfare state commission started in September, closed doors are also about: where can work incentives be improved, social benefits may also be merged? There should be suggestions this year.

The problem of increasing health costs

The government is under acute time pressure at health insurance costs. The additional contributions had already increased to 2.9 percent at the beginning of the year. However, there is only a tendency towards the costs: 54.5 billion euros for clinic treatments in the 1st half of the year (plus 9.6 percent), 27 billion euros for medical treatments (plus 7.8 percent), 28.9 billion euros for medicines (plus 6 percent).

Minister of Health Nina Warken (CDU) wants to clarify until mid -October. The coalition wants to prevent an increase in health insurance contributions in early 2026. Despite the financial injections provided in the budget, a gap of four billion euros is still being placed. A legal brake is also under discussion, so that expenses do not increase more than the contributions.

However, general expenditure moratoriums are “an inefficient instrument because they affect effective and less effective treatments and doctor contacts alike,” says researcher Ziebarth. An emergency measure. “Good well thought -out reforms ensure that we take a look at the less effective treatments and praise cost -effective doctor contacts and treatments differently.” Basic reforms are also on the agenda: an expert commission started. Suggestions for a large reform of health insurance have been announced by March.

The problem of aging society

Most of the problems are above all the aging of society. This becomes the most evident in the retirement. The transfer of the Babyboomer years strong in birth to retirement has already started. According to the plans of the coalition and the draft law of BAS, the level of security should be kept stable in 48 percent. So the pension insurance will need significantly more money in the coming years. The costs for the stabilization of the pension level in 2031 should increase to more than 11 billion euros. In addition, there is the billion -dollar mother’s pension.

A pension commission is to develop reform plans from 2026. So far, agreement has hardly been foreseeable. Minister Bas had repeatedly rejected claims for a higher retirement age. Last but not least, she sees “not everyone deposits in this system”, as she said in an interview. In view: self -employed and civil servants.