Drug policy: Cannabis black market so far hardly replaced

One and a half years after the controversial cannabis legalization in Germany, a first evaluation does not see an urgent need for correction – but also no decisive effects on illegal procurement channels. It is becoming apparent that the now permissible cultivation associations “have not yet made a relevant contribution to the displacement of the black market intended by the legislator,” says a report submitted in Berlin. Federal Minister of Health Nina Warken (CDU) spoke of “questionable tendencies” and announced that he will advise on possible need for action.

The addiction researcher Jakob Manthey from the University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf said when the first findings were presented that the expectation of most experts had obviously occurred: “It happens relatively little at short notice.” With a view to the German model of legalization, he explained that you still have to make an effort to get to cannabis that is not sold on every street corner.

The legalization, which has still been implemented by the traffic light coalition, has granted smoke and cultivation for adults with many restrictions since April 1, 2024. The cultivation of up to three plants in private apartments is allowed. You can keep up to 50 grams of cannabis, and there are 25 grams on the way. There are prescribed distances to playgrounds and schools, consumption in front of minors is prohibited. Non-commercial cultivation associations with up to 500 members are also permissible. Cannabis is still prohibited for young people under the age of 18.

The evaluation had already been determined in the law. In view, the following were initially followed for child and youth protection and the amount of possession. “So far, the present results show no urgent need for action in relation to the areas examined,” says the report of the research network, which also includes experts from the Düsseldorf University Hospital and the Institute for Criminology at the University of Tübingen. “Robust statements” could not yet be derived. Further analyzes are planned.

Cannabis market estimated up to 823 tons

Production in cultivation associations that have been requested since July 2024 has identified less than 0.1 percent of the total requirement, according to the interim report. Twelve to 14 percent were covered by medical cannabis. The market shares of private own construction and the black market have not yet been quantified. A total requirement for 2024 of 670 to 823 tons was estimated. A central role in the sources of supply continues to be illegal in the social environment.

The addiction researcher Daniel Kotz from the University Hospital Düsseldorf said with regard to the data available so far, that the falling trend in the share of cannabis consuming adolescent continues after partialization. According to the report, there are indications of a decline in cannabis -related messages to the youth welfare offices – and also for addiction advice that young people take. A possible influence of legalization on acute or chronic health problems among young people cannot currently be determined.

Health protection and traffic

An increase in the number of adult consumers for about 15 years is likely to continue slightly, explained Manthey. Precise implications for health protection, especially in road traffic, have not yet been determined. The number of accidents under the influence of intoxicating funds has increased before and after the law came into force, according to the report – the concrete influence of legalization should be determined with further evaluations. In general, there are indications of a slight increase in acute health problems as a result of cannabis use among adults.

Crime and possession of possessions

The Tübingen criminologist Jörg Kinzig spoke of the quantitatively most important decriminalization in the history of the Federal Republic. According to the report, only a few surveyed consumers stated that they occasionally violated consumption bans. The punishment risk is also negligible. Many practical problems in the implementation complained among the police and regulatory authorities surveyed. The possession of 25 grams is too large and a hindrance to investigations. A simplification of the rules and a harmonization with smoking bans is worth considering, the report recommends.

Minister of Health Warken told the German Press Agency: “The interim evaluation of the cannabis law shows, despite the still missing further data basis.” Politicians cannot simply ignore significant criticism from security authorities of the regulations. “Together with the coalition factions and the security authorities, we will have to discuss possible need for action.”

The SPD legal politician Carmen Wegge said that the report confirmed that legalization was “the right and long overdue step”. The approach proves to decriminalize consumers, strengthen prevention and relieve the police and judiciary. However, it should be rehearsed when accessing cultivation associations. The Union and SPD agreed in the coalition agreement to “openly evaluated” the law this autumn.

The Green Group Vice Misbah Khan stated Warken to reflect in the old thinking pattern of an outdated culture of prohibition. The partialization “had no dramatic negative effects on our society”. Left-wing health politician Ates Gürpinar said: “Panicialism around the Cannabis Act proves to be unfounded once again.” However, too high hurdles prevented that legal structures actually have an effect.