Sahra Wagenknecht: That’s why she’s right for once

No, there is not yet a ghost walking around Berlin’s government district. But an anxious question has been swaying on the banks of the Spree for a while now: What happens if the narrow majority in the Bundestag is based on counting errors – and the BSW subsequently enters the Bundestag?

The consequences, at least this is certain, would shake this republic. The coalition? Gone. The Chancellor? Without legitimacy. And the government? Oh, let’s not talk about it.

It would be a national crisis that could lead to the next Bundestag election. Nobody who is interested in halfway stable conditions in Germany – and in Europe – can want that.

And yet: The result of the federal election should be recounted. The reason is simple: a vote on which all legislative and executive power in the federal government rests must be beyond any doubt.

And unfortunately these doubts exist. First of all, there are the bare numbers. Almost 50 million valid second votes – 49,649,512 to be exact – were cast on February 23rd. Sahra Wagenknecht’s alliance received 2,472,947 votes. The party’s share was 4.981 percent, meaning it narrowly missed the five percent hurdle.

So it’s about 9,500 votes. And there is some evidence to suggest that this number is not correct. When the preliminary results were announced, the BSW was still 13,500 votes short. 4,000 were added during routine testing alone.

In addition, there were samples in some of the 95,000 electoral districts that resulted in a few additional votes for the BSW. Even if a simple extrapolation is impossible because the districts are structured far too differently, the small recount at least provided an indication that a lot could add up.

And then there is the small party Alliance Germany, which was on the ballot paper directly above Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht. The BSW argues that some election workers may have confused the two parties during the counting.

Yes, that sounds a bit difficult. But here too there are indications that there is something to this assumption. The political scientists Eckhard Jesse and Uwe Wagschal counted, and lo and behold: in 145 electoral districts, the Alliance Germany, which only received around 76,000 second votes nationwide, was ahead of the otherwise much stronger BSW.

For all of these reasons, the two renowned scientists consider “a nationwide recount” to be “urgently necessary”. And they are right about that. A quick decision has to be made: first by the election verification committee in the Bundestag – and then by the entire parliament. There are no serious reasons for a further postponement.

Of course, given the possible consequences, it seems understandable if the Union and the SPD want to avoid a recount. The reluctance of the Greens and the Left is also understandable. Ultimately, if the BSW were to move in, their factions would lose at least some mandates and would face additional left-wing populist competition.

In principle, this also applies to the AfD. However, the party would benefit politically if the BSW were to move in. Not only would it then have important minority rights together with the BSW: it could enjoy bathing in the chaos and wait all the more eagerly for the so-called system to implode on its own. That’s why she now supports Wagenknecht.

But either way: strategic considerations should not influence this decision. The impression should not even arise that a possibly incorrect result of a free and secret election only stands because a lot of power is attached to it. Because this is exactly the impression that extremists and populists specifically nourish – and from which they in turn feed.

Even if a majority in the Bundestag rejects a new count, they should at least do so quickly. Only after a no does the BSW have legal recourse to the Federal Constitutional Court.

Nobody knows how Karlsruhe would decide. Of course, there are also arguments against a recount. The Federal Returning Officer and the election authorities of the states listed them in their statements to the Bundestag. But what would the reputation of parliament be like if the BSW were to win in the Federal Constitutional Court? Especially: If everything went correctly, why not check again?

In fact, it is not at all clear that the BSW would be in the Bundestag in the event of a recount. And what would happen then? Exactly: the coalition majority would be there, the government would feel vindicated, and the BSW would probably remain an episode.

But above all: trust in the parties that want this democracy would be somewhat strengthened again.