Guest post
The firewall only benefits the AfD
Previous attempts to keep the party small have failed. The political scientist Philip Manow therefore advocates a new strategy.
“All happy families are alike, but every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” In In this first sentence from Tolstoy’s “Anna Karenina” you would only need “family”. “Political system” and you would have a pretty accurate one Description of the present.
Almost all countries in Europe are with the same developmentconfronted: the established parties become weak and weaker, besides On them, at the edges, new pars thriveshare. But in dealing with these new radicals, each political system seems unhappy in its own way.
It may seem almost comforting that Germany is not alone in this dilemma arises. In France, populists from the left and right have more than 40 percent of the seats in the National Partycollection, close to a negative verhindering majority. She will every time achieved when a few disappointed people leave to join the moderate middle.
Philip Manov
The Hamburg-born political scientist, born in 1963, has been a professor of international political economy at the University of Siegen since 2024. He previously taught in Konstanz, Heidelberg and Bremen, among others. One of his main focuses is the political economy of populism. In his In the book of the same name (2018), Manow analyzes the various populist currents in Europe, their causes and their differences.
The result: a hectic sequence of mistrustapplications, resignations, the nomination of new prime ministers, almost hopeless attempts to form a government, bloodless governance – a politipermanent crisis.
Who is irritated by this chaos? looks over the Rhine should be taken into accountgen that Germany is affected by such vercircumstances perhaps only a special assetis far away. Are in France In view of a national debt of 130 percent, the fiscal lubricants for the formation of political compromises now exhausted, in Germany will – still – in the shadow of “purchased time”, like the sociologist Wolfgang Streeck describes, governs. Purchase price: a feesignificantly increased Bundeswehr budget and 500 billion for infrastructure. One However, such an operation cannot be repeated often, if at all.
The emergence of populists has… the majority in all European countriesmake education more complicated, except where the problem no longer arises because the populistsare currently in government: in Italy, the Netherlands, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Austria has two such episodeslived through it. The right-wing populist one FPÖ took part in government in 2000 and 2017.
The first time verRed-Green under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder sought together with European ones allies even to put up an EU-wide firewall. That was soon tacitly circumvented and proven otherwise prove to be ineffective. The second government with FPÖ participation ended with the Ibiza scandal. Today is one compared to Jörg Haider’s times The FPÖ appears even more aggressively in the surveys by a large margin strongest party, 14 percent ahead of the Austrian Christian Democrats, the ÖVP.
The AfD is growing in polls
Move away, wait for the ghost to appearis, include, exclude or even ban, as the SPD, Greens and Left do the AfD would like to do? Your Themen take up or not because Voters always have the original of the copy prefer? It seems that almost altried. And nothing workswould have done. Despite all the variance in measuresThe only constant seems to be the AfD is growing in polls and in elections and can therefore also benefit from the aura of the quasi “unstoppable rise” that results from this development.
Nobody, it seems, knows for him Dealing with the right-wing populists is the (dis)magic formula. Really no one? It still doesn’t seem clear what will change must. But it is becoming increasingly clear that German politics is interested in dealing differently with the AfD (and for the Union: too with the left) will not get past.
Otherwise the entire political Fatal context from which the Right-wing populists suck their honey, further updated: 1. the problems of Finding a majority among the shrinking populationthe established parties, which are only poor be held together as a prevention coalition; 2. the programmatic ones Self-denials that they commit themselves tothrough forced and which make them even less attractive to voters. And finally 3. the paradisiacal state of complete irresponsibility that it is allows the AfD to shine ever brighter against the deep gray of the circumstances undamaged from all constraints Compromise turns out to be the one consistentte, principled, incorruptible political power. The next oneAn external look at the situation shows that the firewall primarily benefits the AfD.
Only the fire, of all things, intensifiespermanently wall up the incentives yourself, andhaving to hold on to it for a while. In the In the shadow of the wall, extremes can flourish undisturbed in the AfD. But ever extremeThe more threatening they are, the more threatening they are their growth; the more tightly the ranks of the self-proclaimed “democracy” closecentrist parties” at the expense of the own political profile.
Exactly that verdeepens the perceived gap between an alleged cartel of the “indiscriminate old parties” on the one hand side that only clings to power, and the real alternative on the other Page. Continued permanently, they would Continue to gain edges and lose the center until the “firewall or “Don’t you?” question no longer arose with an AfD as clearly the strongest force. In the new federal states the party seems to bejust to take a look at that.
There is a third way
That in view of the continued radicalization of the AfD there is no other wayno, than she consistently stayed away from powerkeep in mind that it is far too dangerous Putting things to the test is one thing Position, which, given the state of things, is very viele can give good reasons for himself. ThereIt also dominates the discourse. But it only makes sense under one premise: that you only have the choice between an AfD in power or one far away Doesn’t mean there’s something third at all would exist. But that’s not how it is.
This third comes into the debate Hardly before, because in 70 years of German democracy there has been a practice of coalition has established in the governmentMajorities are in favor of an entire legislaturetur period swear absolute loyalty – politic monogamy. On the other hand, it seems almost unimaginable and downright scandalous to use flexible majorities in parliamentzen, possibly even a minority government that sometimes leans to the left, sometimes on the right gets the missing votes – political polyamory.
What is largely considered unthinkable in Germany has long been common practice elsewhere and apparently leads to failure therenending to significantly less political unhappiness. In the Scandinavian countries are minority governments more political Everyday.
Almost all Danish post-war reyations and four fifths of SwedesFrench governments did not have their own majority in parliament. At the moment in Sweden, the bourgeoisie are taking their cues from the right-wing populists of the Swedestolerate Democrats. The message from impending end of the Swedish Democracy has so far failed to materialize.
On the contrary: the Sweden Democrats want – like all right-wing populists and theirs Voters – effectively restrict migration. You have the choice, like the AfD on a crazy remigration self-radicalto go on a lization trip, to achieve nothing politically and thus to disappoint their voters, or to a moderaterestrictive migration policy courseagree to what was offered to them by the right-wing bourgeoisie. You have is, unsurprisingly, for the second I decided on this option and chose this optionse clearly de-radicalized.
Accordingly It’s difficult to be the first to take this course a step towards fascism. “Compromise without coalition corset”, That’s what a valued colleague, Christian, calls it Plug, this government practice. His Thesis that flexible majorities support the demoStrengthening democracy is what he summarizes in one word forthcoming book.
Whom now the horror of a hard lawThe swing of German politics gets into the limbs, which is due to the moderationkung flexible majorities pointed out and that they do not have the privilege of one political spectrum. The principle could also be used for left-wing projects.
Just a thought experiment: what would happen?sen, Gerhard Schröder would have his red-green coalition as a minority in 2005, after a narrow defeat against Angela Merkelgovernment continued to deal with the votemen of the left from citizen insurance up to wealth tax to implement social democratic core concerns? You imagine such a society with more socialfairer and less overwhelmedation through unregulated immigration. We would live in a different and probably happier republic.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
