Ukraine: Odessa – Putin’s next target robs Kyiv of access to the coast

Reporting in the West focuses on the defensive successes of the Ukrainian army. And at first glance, it seems that the Russian troops have been stopped around Kharkov and Kyiv. Here it looks as if Putin’s plan has failed. Kharkov is little more than 20 kilometers from the border. A blitzkrieg looks different.

The situation in the south of Ukraine is less visible, where Putin’s calculations seem to be working much better. The Russian forces have broken out of Crimea and taken control of Cherson, the first major Ukrainian city. The small port is central to further operations. In the east, along the self-proclaimed separatist republics, Kiev’s troops were thrown out of their well-developed position system along the entire front line, despite individual defensive successes. In the southeast, Kyiv still controls the port city of Mariupol. But it is already being fought and the last free entry is controlled by the invaders. That’s what BBC journalists found out yesterday when they tried to leave the city and suddenly Russian tanks appeared in front of them.

Dnieper lifeline cut off

Kherson is a city of 300,000 on the banks of the Dnieper near its confluence with the Black Sea. Their control has a propaganda effect. With the construction of a dam, Kyiv cut off the water supply to the Crimea, and one of the first actions the conquerors began to flood the canal again. Kherson is already blocking Ukraine’s access to the sea across the Dnieper. “The Dnieper is an important artery for Ukraine, and its dams provide electricity to much of Ukraine’s industry and civilian population,” said Dr. Scott Savitz, chief engineer at RAND Corporation, The Jerusalem Post. “She cuts through the heart of Ukraine. He is to Ukraine what the Mississippi is to the United States.”

Moscow will try to control both banks of the Dnieper and use the river to supply its own troops, thereby solving the existing logistical problems. Once the position in the city is secured and Putin’s troops have regrouped, they will attempt to completely cut off free Ukraine from the coast and the main port city of Odessa.

Central port of Ukraine

The blockade or capture of the Black Sea port of Odessa would be a “stranglehold” on the Ukrainian economy. Presumably, the invaders would not initially move directly along the coast, but advance inland to Moldova. The eastern part of Moldova is not controlled by the government and has been home to the Moscow-controlled, self-proclaimed Republic of Transnistria since the 1990s. Putin would create a land bridge there. The only obstacle on the way is the city of Mykolayiv, which has 480,000 inhabitants.

In view of the fighting in the vicinity of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, it can be assumed that Putin’s troops want to get a second springboard across the Dnieper in the city of the same name. The Ukrainian troops are putting up resistance in the region, but have so far not been able to hold a position in the area. Unlike in the big cities, they run the risk of being bypassed. Clashes have already been reported at Voznesensk, which is halfway between the Dnieper and Moldova.

A large amphibious assault would presumably accompany the encirclement of Odessa. Moscow has assembled an impressive number of Black Sea DropShips, which are currently cruising off Crimea. You are scheduled for this landing. If Odessa were taken without their help, they would have no task in the war. The whole coast would then be lost for Kyiv. Kiev’s navy has been largely destroyed. The flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny, sank yesterday. It is unclear whether Kyiv still has defense batteries on the coast.

High propaganda value

“Odessa is the big booty,” General Sir Richard Barrons told the British Times. “Following the success at Kherson, one would expect that Russian forces located on the coast would now move further west, and it is entirely plausible that they would then make an amphibious assault somewhere near Odessa and perform a link operation for a few days.”

Without the port, Ukraine’s economy would have been hit hard. All bulk goods, including grain, are transported to Europe by sea. Odessa is one of the most well-known cities in Ukraine, its possession or loss has enormous propaganda value in addition to its strategic value. Especially for Putin’s legitimacy of the war in Russia, where numerous people lost their lives in the riots around the trade union building in 2014.

The Sad Truth of the “Humanitarian Corridors”

The negotiations on “humanitarian corridors” must also be seen in this light. They are an involuntary acknowledgment by the Ukrainian government of imminent defeat. It means nothing else than that the Ukrainian troops will not be able to keep the access roads to big cities clear. “Humanitarian Corridors” are created when the invaders manage to completely encircle large cities. This leaves access for supplies through which civilians can flee. However, there will be no more supply of ammunition, supplies or fuel for the defenders. Mariupol is already in this position, and Odessa, Kharkov and Kyiv could follow.

Well-trained and motivated troops can defend urban terrain for a long time. At great cost, because even weapons like the Stinger and Javelin won’t be able to prevent defenders’ positions from being knocked out by artillery from afar. Such a siege cannot be broken by them from within, this could only be achieved by mobile operations of large formations.

Swell: ; ;