According to a new study, it is possible to manage without Russian gas in Europe in the winter of 2022/23 under “significant challenges”.
Under certain conditions, Europe could get by without Russian natural gas next winter. This is the conclusion of a study by the consulting firm Aurora Energy Research presented on Friday. In this case, the analysts assume a gap of 109 billion cubic meters of natural gas, which corresponds to 38 percent of all planned gas deliveries to the EU. This gap would have to be closed by other deliveries and consumption cuts, it said.
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Alternative supplies could be boosted through a combination of more LNG and pipeline imports and increased domestic natural gas production, it said in a statement. Gas storage also plays an important role. It would be helpful if the storage tanks were 90 percent full by the beginning of the coming winter. Based on current gas prices, the analysts expect costs in the order of 60 to 100 billion euros. Strong government intervention would be required for storage.
Depending on the storage levels, the gas demand in various economic sectors would have to be reduced to a greater or lesser extent. For example, the planned shutdown of nuclear and coal-fired power plants with a total capacity of 25 gigawatts could be delayed, which would offset around 12 billion cubic meters of gas consumption by gas-fired power plants. However, the demand for coal and, as a result, CO2 emissions would increase accordingly.
However, if Russian coal deliveries were also stopped, this would mean a “considerable challenge” for coal-fired power plant operators, according to the study. Households could also reduce gas consumption through moderate behavioral changes.
Source: Stern
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