Will Russian President Vladimir Putin launch a nuclear war? Fear of Putin’s irrationality has grown since the start of the Ukraine war. Andrei Kozyrev was Foreign Minister under Boris Yeltsin from 1990 to 1996. He believes: Russia will not use nuclear weapons.
With the Russian attack on the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant and the subsequent fire in an administrative building of the nuclear power plant, fears of a nuclear catastrophe in Europe have grown. Fears of nuclear war have also increased following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that he would put the country’s “deterrent forces” on high alert in the war with Ukraine. The so-called Russian deterrence forces can also include nuclear weapons.
But would Putin really push the “red button”? No, says Andrei Kozyrev. From late 1990 to 1996 he was Russia’s Foreign Minister. Today he lives in the . From 2016 to 2017 he was active at , an independent research center in Washington DC. On Twitter he comments on Vladimir Putin and the fears of a nuclear war.
Andrei Kozyrev: Putin believes his own propaganda in Russia
First he explains whether the Russian President is acting irrationally or not. Most people, especially in the West, would see his decision to invade Ukraine as “completely irrational”. “I don’t agree. It’s terrible, but not irrational,” said Kosyrev.
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To understand why the invasion was rational for Putin, one has to put oneself in his shoes. Putin would therefore have three convictions that led him to his decision. First, the state of Ukraine. “Putin has believed for the last 20 years that Ukraine is not a real state and should at best be a satellite state. Maidan ended any hope of keeping Ukraine independent and pro-Kremlin . He thought the West was behind it.”
If the Ukrainian government cannot be kept independent and pro-Kremlin, Kosyrev said, “then he (Putin) will openly enforce it.” The ex-foreign minister continues: “He also began to believe his own propagandists that Ukraine was being ruled by a Nazi Bandera junta.” A “perfect pretext” to “denazify” Ukraine, writes Kosyrev.
Putin considered his military strong and the West weak
Another of Putin’s beliefs can be found in the Russian military. “The Kremlin has spent the last 20 years modernizing its military,” explains Kosyrev. However, a large part of this budget was stolen and spent on mega yachts in Cyprus. “But as a military adviser, you can’t report that to the president. So they reported lies to him instead.”
And as a third point, the former foreign minister mentions the geopolitical situation in the West. “The ruling elite in Russia believed their own propaganda that President Biden was mentally inept. They also thought the EU was weak because its sanctions were so toothless in 2014. And then the US botched its withdrawal from Afghanistan, corroborating this narrative .”
If one believes that these three points are true and one is pursuing the goal of restoring the “glory of the Russian empire,” “then invading Ukraine is perfectly rational,” Kozyrev concludes about Vladimir Putin. In his own perception, the Russian President acted rationally – albeit on the basis of false facts and assessments.
Kosyrev: The West shouldn’t back down for fear of nuclear war
“In my opinion, he is rational. Given his sanity, I firmly believe that he will not intentionally use nuclear weapons against the West. I say intentionally because indiscriminate shelling near a nuclear power plant can cause an unintended nuclear disaster in Ukraine.”
Kozyrev even goes a step further: “The threat of nuclear war is another example of its rationality. The Kremlin knows that it can try to extort concessions, be it from Ukraine or from the West, by using its latest remaining card in play makes sabers rattle: Nuclear Weapons.”
The former foreign minister therefore believes that the West, fearing nuclear war, should not make unilateral concessions or limit its support to Ukraine too much.
Source: Stern
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