An advance from Poland not only falls on fertile ground internationally. It’s about fighter jets for Ukraine. Several Western allies are against it – including Germany.
Western allies have virtually ruled out NATO enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine because of the threat of nuclear escalation.
Another demand from Ukraine is still in the air: They want fighter jets like the MiG-29 from NATO. A proposal by Poland raises questions and immediately leads to upheaval.
Where do the MiG-29 fighter jets come from?
According to various sources, Poland still has 28 MiG-29 combat aircraft developed in the Soviet Union, including 22 machines from NVA stocks. The Federal Republic of Germany leased these aircraft, which had been taken over from the GDR, to Poland on the basis of an agreement concluded in June 2003 for a symbolic amount of one euro.
Poland wanted to use the interceptor – the most powerful Warsaw Pact fighter jet during the Cold War – for its own defense or for foreign missions under the umbrella of the UN, OSCE or NATO, as it was called at the time. Germany and Poland agreed rules for the whereabouts of the machines. The German standard for deliveries to other countries is that Berlin must approve the material being passed on to subsequent buyers.
Why does Ukraine want the planes?
At the beginning of the war, Ukraine still had around 125 aircraft, including 37 MiG-29 jets. According to the Western military, Russian attacks have largely destroyed the air force.
A delivery of operational MiG-29 is obvious for the Ukraine. The pilots are basically trained on the model, even if the machines have been modified to meet NATO standards.
Training the pilots on a completely new aircraft in the short term seems unrealistic. However, in a note verbale dated March 3, the Ukrainian embassy in Berlin asked the federal government to supply weapon systems, including “multipurpose combat aircraft”.
Can NATO or allies therefore be drawn into the conflict?
Ukraine is a sovereign state with a democratically elected government and sovereignty over its own airspace. However, the Russian attack has created a reality in which NATO is desperate to avoid becoming a war party.
Weapons deliveries alone do not justify this, various experts have said in the past few days. Things could look different if the MiG-29s were deployed from Ramstein to combat missions or were supplied from there.
Ultimately, what counts is how Russia reacts. The Russian Foreign Ministry again warned on Monday about Western arms deliveries to Ukraine and the consequences for NATO. This could provoke a “catastrophic development of the situation not only in Ukraine, but also in the NATO countries”.
Why Ramstein as a possible location for a handover?
The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs surprisingly announced on Tuesday evening that the government was ready to move all of its MiG-29s to the US Ramstein Air Force Base in Rhineland-Palatinate immediately and free of charge and make them available to the US. The US Air Force has its European headquarters in Ramstein, which is also the headquarters of a NATO air force command.
“Decisions on the delivery of offensive weapons must be made unanimously at the level of the entire NATO,” said Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Poland cannot take any independent steps because it is not involved in the war.
The NATO member state says it is reacting to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. “We are currently actively looking at the issue of planes that Poland could deliver to Ukraine,” said the US chief diplomat in Moldova.
What was Poland aiming for with the advance?
In the current situation, it is always about building up pressure and a threat against Russia. In this sense, “strategic communication” can be detonated like a kind of bomb. However, according to the Polish statement, there are many indications of communication out of anger or a rift in the alliance.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz immediately rejected the proposal and said on Wednesday that the specific steps “definitely do not include combat aircraft”. The US Department of Defense has previously described Poland’s surprising proposal as “untenable” – citing “difficult logistical challenges” and “serious concerns” about the geopolitical dimension.
“It is simply not clear to us whether there is a valid justification for the course of action proposed yesterday,” said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington at a joint press appearance with his British colleague Liz Truss. Each government must decide for itself whether to transfer military equipment to Ukraine.
Jakub Kumoch, foreign policy advisor to Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, revealed on Wednesday what Poland is about. Statements by Western politicians were “unfortunate”. They had to explain themselves to the Ukrainian side, who thought Poland would block. Kumoch said it was now clear: “The United States does not want these planes to land on American bases.”
Source: Stern
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