The Russian secret service gives its own Ukraine campaign bad marks, and the Americans also come to the conclusion that Vladimir Putin is “angry and frustrated” by the course of the war – which would be a bad sign.
Only a few days ago, an alleged report by the Russian secret service FSB became known, in which the invasion of Ukraine was described as a disaster. For example, important authorities are largely clueless about invasion plans and the number of deaths. Regarding the outcome, the punctured paper, which experts have found genuine, says: “Russia has no way out. There are no options for a possible victory, only defeats.” It is unclear whether the Kremlin shares this assessment, but the American secret services have come to a similar conclusion – which is rather bad news.
“Putin is angry and frustrated”
William Burns, head of the US foreign intelligence service CIA, predicted gloomy weeks for Ukraine. “I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now,” he said at a US Congressional hearing on the Russian president. “He will probably go one step further and try to crush the Ukrainian military without regard for civilian casualties.” The next few weeks would probably be “ugly” and the fighting in the cities even worse than before.
According to the CIA chief, a lasting solution is not in sight for the Kremlin chief. It is not foreseeable how the Kremlin boss in Ukraine could maintain a puppet regime or a pro-Russian leadership, which he is trying to install against the massive resistance of the Ukrainian population. It was precisely Putin’s aggression during the annexation of the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula of Crimea in 2014 that created the strong feeling of national independence and sovereignty in Ukraine that he faces today.
“Explosive Mixture of Grief and Ambition”
For Putin, the attack on Ukraine is a matter of deep personal conviction. “He’s had an explosive mix of grief and ambition for many years,” Burns said. “He has created a system where his own circle of advisors is becoming ever narrower. Covid has narrowed that circle even further. And it’s a system where having someone question or challenge their judgment isn’t proving career-enhancing.”
The head of the secret service argued that the Russian president made a complete miscalculation in his decision to attack Ukraine. Putin thought Ukraine was weak and easily intimidated. On the other hand, Putin probably suspected that Europeans, especially the French and Germans, were distracted and risk-averse by the elections in France and the change in leadership in Germany. “Third, he believed he had made his economy sanction-proof.” In addition, the Kremlin chief was confident that he had modernized his military and that it was capable of achieving a quick victory at minimal cost. All of these assessments turned out to be wrong.
Ukraine allegedly has biological weapons
In view of these developments, it is not surprising that the Kremlin is looking for justifications for its war. According to British intelligence services, Russia has accused Ukraine of developing nuclear or biological weapons. This narrative, while not new, has been intensified since the end of February to justify the Russian invasion of Ukraine after the fact, according to an intelligence update from the British Ministry of Defence.
Moscow had previously announced that it would expand attacks on Ukrainian arms industry buildings. Only on Monday did the Russian Ministry of Defense claim that there was a network of biological laboratories in Ukraine working on behalf of the US Department of Defense. However, international fact-checkers have long since invalidated this claim.
Source: Stern
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