The Chechen capital of Grozny and Syria’s Aleppo are examples of Russian warfare that ignores civilians. Now there is growing concern that the horrible story could repeat itself.
Siege, hail of bombs and no way out: The calls for help from the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol – home to more than 400,000 people – are becoming more dramatic.
Internationally, it is observed with concern how Russia, after its war of aggression, which began hesitantly, is now taking the fighting even more brutally into populated areas. The war correspondent for the Russian state broadcaster RT, Semyon Pegov, describes the enclosure as the “Mariupol pocket”.
“How far will Russian troops go in Ukraine?” Kenneth Roth, head of the human rights organization Human Rights Watch, asks with concern. “The Russian military has a history of responding to such resistance with gross violations of the laws of war, including deliberate targeting of civilians who have been the target of indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks.”
Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24. Several metropolises are now surrounded by Russian troops – food, heating and electricity are running out. Destruction from grenade attacks and hitting rockets increases, the number of dead grows.
«Mariupol will probably serve as a beacon»
“Putin’s and his generals’ plan didn’t work out. That means they have to act differently now in order to achieve military success,” says military expert Michael Karl, who, as a researcher at the Bundeswehr think tank GIDS, deals with Russia and Eastern Europe. He points to the Russian warfare in Syria and sees similarities, such as target selection. «Mariupol will probably serve as a beacon. We assume that this city will be a kind of example where bombardment and rocket and artillery fire and encirclement will terrorize the civilian population and destroy the city,” he warns.
One can refer not only to Aleppo, but also to the Chechen capital Grozny. It was considered one of the most badly damaged cities in the world, but was also the scene of the heaviest losses of a Russian armored force that was inadequately prepared and deployed with conscripts.
“If you ask an infantryman: The worst thing for him is fighting in town and houses. The enemy lurks behind every door, behind every wall. Hidden charges and ambushes. If you want to get in there, you have to have excellent training,” says Karl. “But the one who defends it doesn’t have to. The will, the appropriate armament and last but not least the local knowledge is often enough for him.” If the Russians plan to conquer the big cities in local and house-to-house combat, “then they will suffer heavy losses.”
For the Russian troops, the capital Kyiv is still the real focus, said the military expert. If Kyiv should fall, the Dnipro River – which flows from Belarus through Ukraine into the Black Sea – as a kind of natural border will have a very important and not only symbolic, but also geostrategic value for the further defense of Ukraine.
Should a quick decision be forced?
One question is how long sanctioned Russia can sustain this war morally and economically. The GIDS scientists assume that Moscow is at least running out of money. In a conservative total, the war is costing Russia about $15 billion a day. Depending on the bill, Moscow still has a financial cushion for around a month. Is there now a risk of an attempt to force a quick decision by changing course?
“We remind the Russian authorities that targeted attacks on civilians and civilian objects, so-called carpet bombing in towns and villages and other forms of indiscriminate attacks are prohibited under international law and may constitute war crimes,” a spokeswoman for the High Commissioner for Human Rights said. She reiterated that a building attacked in Mariupol was a functioning maternity hospital.
At an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council in New York on Friday, the UN political affairs envoy, Rosemary DiCarlo, said there were “credible reports of the use of cluster munitions by Russian forces, including in populated areas”. These are prohibited under international humanitarian law and, together with carpet bombing of areas, could constitute war crimes.
The focus is now on the situation around the capital Kyiv. In the third week of the war, the Russian army began to settle on the positions it had reached. The tanks, weapon systems and troop transporters that had been stowed in a column for days have partly left the streets and taken up covered waiting positions in the forests.
The Ministry of Defense in Kyiv is assuming regroupings and the bringing in of reserves and supplies. At the weekend, there were isolated attempts east of Kyiv to test the defense of the city of three million. The Russian deployment of forces – as suspected by observers before the war – has not been sufficient to carry out decisive attacks on all sectors of the front.
Luhansk and Donetsk remain the main theaters of war
In the northeast and east, the situation in the cities of Chernhihiv, Sumy, Oktyrka and the megacity of Kharkiv remains precarious. They are under constant fire, some with Grad rocket launchers, and bombardment from the air. According to Russian information, only military targets are attacked, but civilian casualties and the destruction of homes are reported daily. The reason for this could also be the defense of the cities by the Ukrainian artillery from residential areas.
Across the country, the Russian air force is trying to exploit relative air superiority and wear down the Ukrainian opponent. In addition to this, other military targets in the deep Ukrainian hinterland, such as the Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk airfields, are also being attacked with rockets, especially at night.
The main theater of war remains the eastern Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. New conquered towns are reported daily in the reports of the separatists and the Russian Ministry of Defense. However, no decisive successes could be achieved here either.
Apparently, in the rest of the Donbass, the aim is to encircle the main part of the Ukrainian troops by encircling them from Izyum in the Kharkiv region to the Zaporizhia region. But the two shock groups are still about 270 kilometers away from each other by road. The Russian forces deployed so far do not appear to be sufficient to carry out the project.
Source: Stern
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