War in Ukraine: Last respite for Kyiv

War in Ukraine: Last respite for Kyiv

The Ukrainian armed forces are successfully defending their capital, but are gradually losing control of the suburbs. Russia is getting ready to strangle the whole city.

The Russian troops did not achieve any greater success in their attempt to conquer Kyiv. A storm on the city does not seem possible at the moment. All attacks involving larger units have come to nothing. So Kyiv will remain the capital of a free Ukraine for the next few days. On the other hand, the Russian troops in the suburbs are steadily making progress. In view of the length of such a ring, gains of around five kilometers a day do not appear dramatic, but in the long run they will pinch off the city’s lifelines, the access roads and railway lines.

Mass of troops before Kyiv

According to British intelligence, the bulk of the Russian troops are now about 25 kilometers from Kyiv. From there they will reach their attack positions shortly. On the night of Saturday, Russian offensives on the northern city limits of Kyiv near Zazymya and to the south near Vyschenky achieved limited penetration, according to the Ukrainian general staff. With these positions, the part of Kyiv east of the Dnieper would be largely cut off from land communications. Only in the west and south-west of the city are the roads still open.

War in Ukraine: Anna Dovbysh witnessed Russia's attack live

Shields of the capital

The battles for the Chernihiv-Nizhyn pocket and the besieged city of Sumy are not so well noticed by the public. The resistance there and the successful counterattacks in the Chernihiv-Nizhyn area are the capital’s protective shields. As long as these two resistance zones threaten and block Russian supply lines, the invaders will not be able to launch full-scale offensives in the north-east of the country. If they fall, Kyiv is in imminent danger. Despite the soldiers’ high morale, the trapped troops and civilians will suffer from supply shortages. In particular, ammunition for artillery is likely to run out. The picture is similar in the south, where stubborn resistance around the town of Mykolaiv is protecting the important port city of Odessa.

Ukraine holds the entire metropolitan area

The defenders successfully fend off intrusions into the city of Kyiv. A zone more than ten kilometers in radius around the center is held solely by the Ukrainian armed forces. At the moment it is not clear how Kyiv can stop the slow advance of the Russians along the suburbs. In the urban settlement area, the city is not necessarily a help to the defenders. They cannot completely seal off the large area and are always in danger of being bypassed.

The invaders are preparing for a complete encirclement and siege of the city. As is already happening in Mariupol. Russian forces lack the manpower to storm the cities. Already in Mariupol, and even more so in the much larger Kyiv. Such an approach would also entail large losses. The Russians banked on the supply collapse in the besieged towns for civilians and military and on their superior artillery shelling the besieged towns.

Syrian fighters in Ukraine

Putin’s announcement that volunteers who want to serve the Russian side would be allowed to travel to the combat zone also fits in with this strategy. It’s still just a threat. Still, the possibility of Syrian fighters pouring into Ukraine in larger numbers cannot be dismissed. The Assad regime is dependent on Putin’s Russia in every way. At the request of the Kremlin, Damascus will deploy the “volunteers” it needs. And these would be soldiers who have been tried and tested in brutal house-to-house combat and whose losses do not put pressure on Putin domestically.

Source: Stern

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