The confrontation with Russia is highly explosive. We should stop fueling them with fantasies about gas boycotts. The collapse of the Russian economy is imminent anyway.
In addition to the great solidarity, in all the help, commitment and horror, another sound has mixed in, and it is getting louder. “Freeze for peace” is the formula that was also heard at many demonstrations. Optionally also “freezing for freedom”. The message: We shouldn’t wait until Russia cuts off the gas. We should do it, and do it now, lest our euros and dollars fund Putin’s war. No oil for blood. We can do that with wind turbines, a room temperature of 16 degrees and a little more cycling.
Such demands are well intentioned and a morally correct impulse. But they are not thought through to the end, they are naive – and highly dangerous. At times they come off as post-heroic war howls, adding fuel to a conflict in a very dangerous situation. They are also flanked by hastily thrown out scientific calculations, for example by Leopoldina advisers, that a gas boycott is “manageable”. In the chancellery, people are wondering these days about all the “couch strategists” who have already outbid each other on the subject of Swift. Such scenarios are “nonsense”. Even before the war, it was said that business with Russia was only a few percent of our trade. Now we see the chain reaction.
Dependent on Russia’s gas
Robert Habeck rightly prays that stopping oil and gas would result in severe economic upheavals that would make the slump in the corona pandemic look like company holidays. It’s not about heating at all, many factories would have to close, some forever. A third of the energy in industry is obtained from natural gas. Although Germany could buy the liquid gas LNG together on all the world’s seas and also pay absurd prices, but many European countries could not. Shortly after taking office, Olaf Scholz had calculations made on how raw materials from Russia could be replaced. The result: “not substitutable”. And: “We are dependent.” The replacement can and should at best take place in the medium term.
There is another argument: we have already imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia that are likely to collapse the Russian economy in a matter of weeks. Putin has already described it as “a kind of declaration of war.”
Putin is already cornered
Economic historian Adam Tooze says the West has already intervened in the war through arms sales and sanctions. “The situation is extremely dangerous, unmanageable and unpredictable.” Above all, the sanctions against the Russian central bank would have a new dimension. “I can’t remember a moment in my life when I was more scared when the word central bank was mentioned.” Added to this is the mass exodus of more than 300 companies that have put their businesses on hold or are withdrawing entirely. Thousands of young Russians are fleeing to Finland, the Baltic States or even Armenia, the country is losing its talents. Putin’s threat to expropriate foreign factories if necessary will set Russia back decades. All his decrees are completely helpless. Moscow earns dollars and euros from oil and gas, but can no longer buy any of it. There are projections that this war will erase all growth from Putin’s reign.
Moscow is already cornered and we don’t know how Putin will react in an endgame situation. Attacks like the one on the base near the Polish border show how close we are to a much larger confrontation. We should do everything to contain the war and not let it escalate. And even to this Russia, as difficult as it is, the door must always remain open.
Source: Stern
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