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Volodymyr Zelenskyj wants to involve his people in the Ukraine war. His referendum could advance negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. But such a project also harbors risks, says military expert Carlo Masala.
According to military expert Carlo Masala, the long inconclusive negotiations between Russia and Ukraine could move forward with the plan for a referendum. Such a decision of the people had been announced by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the event that an agreement is reached between the two sides.
“This is an attempt to create the greatest possible legitimacy for a possible peace agreement,” said Masala star-Podcast “Ukraine – the situation” on Tuesday. It is about territorial concessions with a view to Crimea or the sovereignty of the areas in the east of the country – demands that Ukraine has so far strictly rejected.
However, submitting such concessions to the population for a vote is “an enormous risk”. Because after this war one cannot simply assume that the majority agrees. In addition, a vote in the war-torn country is a logistical challenge. 3.5 million citizens have fled abroad, and millions more have left their home towns. “At the moment it is difficult to imagine holding a referendum in this country,” said the politics professor from the Bundeswehr University in Munich.
Russia would continue to put pressure on the civilian population in Ukraine
Masala expects clashes between the occupying forces and the resistance in the Russian-controlled parts of the country to continue. “Russia will take repressive action against these people,” he said. Judges are being sought for summary courts to try insurgents. “That’s what the populace can expect after the cities are conquered.”
He expects Russian forces to hamper agriculture and cripple the economy. Even outside the besieged cities, the misery of the people becomes a means in this conflict.
At the same time, it is becoming less and less clear how the war is actually progressing and who is achieving which successes or suffering defeat. “It is becoming increasingly difficult to have a clear picture of the military course of this conflict.” The same applies to political developments, since only little of the negotiations leaks out. “The fog of war is getting heavier for those looking at this war from the outside,” Masala said.
Source: Stern
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