Ukraine war: Putin’s spokesman in the US interview – three insights

What does Vladimir Putin want? Even on the 28th day of the Ukraine war, an answer is proving difficult. The decision about the end of the Russian invasion seems to fall solely in the head of the Kremlin ruler – a place that is described and and so far seems to have defied all attempts at mapping and crisis diplomacy.

Any morsel of information; every hint, no matter how small, of the (actual) intentions of the Russian president are therefore followed with particular attention if they could be of use in defusing the war.

So what does it mean when Putin’s mouthpiece is now giving an interview on US television?

On Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov hammered in some stakes, giving rise to speculation. The most important statements – and how they might be read:

1. Why does the Kremlin spokesman appear on US television – and speak English?

It was not always quiet around Dmitri Peskov, most recently and described the . All of this has been handed down, but the Kremlin has so far channeled its communication to state channels. The fact that Peskov has now spoken out on US television, even in the language of his ideological opponent, is a remarkable fact in itself.

“Dmitry Peskov tries to influence the formation of opinions about the war in the USA and in the West as a whole and to place the Russian interpretation of what is happening there”says the political scientist and Russia expert Gerhard Mangott from the University of Innsbruck star. “Of course, someone who has a more neutral position, so to speak, and is not a leper like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has to try”so Mangott, albeit Peskow “in the Putin camp, of course” and also under sanctions. “He has been his spokesman for a long time, is well versed in all backgrounds and speaks good English. That’s probably why the Kremlin sent him to talk to them.”

2. When will Russia see each other “existentially threatened”?

The Russian economy is groaning under massive sanctions. The Ukrainian military and people are showing resilience that was not expected. Several NATO and EU countries, not least Germany, are sending weapons and money in support. So far nothing has been able to dissuade the Kremlin ruler from his war course. Instead, Putin has the military actions brutalized, and reports of civilian casualties are increasing. Where should the spiral of escalation turn?

The western alliance does not rule out the worst, including the use of nuclear weapons. Whether the Kremlin spokesman “convinced or confident” is that Putin will not use a nuclear bomb in the war with Ukraine? When asked by CNN, Peskow did not want to rule that out. According to Russian security doctrine, nuclear bombs would only be used if “an existential threat” of the country exist.

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“Peskow refers to a “according to political scientist Mangott. “This regulates the cases in which Russia would resort to nuclear weapons – for example in the case of a nuclear attack, but also in the case of an attack with biological or chemical weapons on Russia and its allies such as Belarus.” The nuclear doctrine therefore lists reasons that must be given for the use of nuclear weapons. “The reasons listed are actually undisputed and considered legitimate, but there have been doubts on the Western side for years that the document actually spells out all possible circumstances.”

Nevertheless, it cannot be assumed that Russia would be ready for a nuclear strike in order to go further on the offensive. “But such a public statement by Peskov naturally wants to send a signal”according to the Russia expert. “The signal: If Russia were to be attacked, Russia is ready to respond by using nuclear weapons.”

3. Which “goals” pursues Russia?

Even the most self-assured Putinologists and Kremlin experts have a hard time finding a reliable answer: What goal is Putin pursuing – and when did he achieve it? Or, to put it cynically: when and with what will the Kremlin ruler be satisfied?

Speaking to CNN, Peskov has repeatedly spelled out the Kremlin’s demands, implying that…

So there can be no talk of a new negotiating perspective. So far there has been no breakthrough in talks between Kyiv and Moscow, however.

The problem: “As banal as it sounds, Vladimir Putin must achieve more with this war than he had before this war”said political scientist Mangott dem star. He could not stay below his three explicit demands, “if this war is supposed to have had any ‘meaning’.” Anything else must be “defeat of Putin” get ranked.

It may be negotiable whether Ukraine has to recognize Crimea as Russian territory or not – in practice, recognition would not change much, since the West’s sanctions against Russia will remain in place anyway. “On the other hand, the neutral status of Ukraine and the independence of the eastern Ukrainian separatist areas are essential”Mangott said.

Putin cannot accept less because he needs a justification for his war. In other words, Putin must sell his invasion as a success in Russia.

“He must be able to show the political and military leaders why thousands of soldiers are dying and why the country is being subjected to the most severe sanctions”explained the Russia expert. “The population will be amazed if the eastern Ukrainian separatist areas are not declared independent states.” Putin gave this demand as the main pretext for war, because there “genocide” will be committed. “Many Russians would ask: why does everything stay the way it was, despite a ‘genocide’? What was this all about?”

…and everything really works “strictly according to plan”?

But, as Peskov and the Kremlin apparently want it to be understood: the course of the “special military operation”, the Russian euphemism for war of aggression, corresponds to the goals set in advance. Everything goes “strictly according to plan”Peskov said on CNN.

There are serious doubts about this among military experts. There is much to suggest that Putin expected a lightning victory from his war of aggression – and miscalculated. The Russian President wanted the brother people in a coup d’état “to free”, but his troops encountered, apparently completely unexpectedly, a well-fortified army and an unyielding people. There is hardly any back and forth on almost all fronts. Experts therefore see the war approaching a stalemate – .

For days, the US government and Ukraine have been saying that the Russian armed forces have logistical problems and are making little progress, especially in the north and east of the country. “We continue to see evidence that the Russians did not plan logistics and supplies properly”US Department of Defense spokesman John Kirby said on Tuesday. “We know that, to the best of their ability, they continue to have problems with gasoline and that they still have difficulties with food”, he said. The Russians are “increasingly frustrated by the lack of progress”.

The lack of progress is also likely to be one of the reasons why President Putin is allowing the acts of war to be brutalized in order to still achieve his goals – because not everything “strictly according to plan” proceeds, as Peskow claims.

“This is war information in the context of an information war”, says political scientist Mangott. It is recognizable and there is a consensus among military experts that not everything is going according to plan. “Nevertheless, Peskow has to claim the opposite. Otherwise, he would admit that Russia miscalculated – for example, in the underestimation of the number of troops or in its assessment of Western arms shipments that have put Ukraine in a better position.” Russia had assumed that the war would be brief and must now constantly adjust its plans. “But of course Peskow can’t say that.”