Russia: Elite remains loyal to Putin despite sanctions in the Ukraine war

Even after a month of war against Ukraine, the political elite in Russia is firmly behind President Vladimir Putin. “There are no signs of a split,” says Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the think tank R.Politik. Neither the horror of the West and the harsh sanctions, nor the criticism from individual oligarchs seem to shake loyalty to the head of state.

“There is a complete consensus, although there may be differences in tactics,” says Stanovaya. A distinction must be made between reservations about the war and the willingness to act. “People are shocked and many believe that the invasion was a mistake. But no one is able to act. Everyone is focused on their own survival,” Stanovaya said. So far, diplomats from the West have not seen any signs of political change in Russia, despite the severe punitive measures.

Vladimir Putin and his super-loyalist system

The liberal opposition has evaporated, the parties represented in parliament are aligned with the Kremlin on almost all issues, and Putin’s strongest opponent, Alexei Navalny, is in prison. “It’s no real surprise that we haven’t yet seen a dramatic public split within the ruling elite,” said Ben Noble, professor of Russian politics at University College London and co-author of a recent book on Navalny.

“Vladimir Putin has cultivated a system in which he is surrounded by super-loyalists who share his worldview of a West that wants to destroy Russia, or by those too afraid to voice their dissent.” According to Stanovaya, criticism has only come from “peripheral” forces of the radical right, who are calling for even more aggressive action against Ukraine.

Three days before the start of the Russian invasion, Putin summoned the political leadership to the Kremlin to discuss recognizing the pro-Russian regions in eastern Ukraine. In a media-savvy demonstration of unity, twelve men and one woman lined up one after the other to speak out in favor of recognizing the self-proclaimed “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk. A move that heralded the invasion.

Russia: Hardly anyone dares to criticize Putin

The meeting was also attended by three men who, according to Western intelligence services, belong to Putin’s closest circle: Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the National Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, and the head of the domestic intelligence service FSB, Alexander Bortnikov. There was not the slightest objection to be heard from any of those present, not even from lower-ranking officials.

Last week, Putin warned against contradicting the Kremlin line, saying the West was “backing on traitors” to weaken Russia. Virtually the only insider stepping out of line is former Kremlin adviser and former Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, who is also the head of the World Chess Federation. In an interview with a US magazine, he spoke out against the war and resigned from his post as head of a business foundation.

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina admitted in an ambiguous video that the Russian economy is in an “extreme” situation. “We all wished very much that this hadn’t happened,” she said. Thereupon there was speculation about a possible resignation of Nabiullina in protest against the war. Last week, however, Putin spoke out in favor of extending Nabiullina’s term in office.

Oligarchs like Oleg Deripaska and Mikhail Fridman, who are hit hard by sanctions, cautiously spoke out in favor of peace. The board of directors of Lukoil, Russia’s largest private energy company, also called for an end to the war. “But it’s one thing to call for peace,” says political scientist Noble. “It’s a completely different thing to criticize Putin directly.”