At the start of the election year, the cards in the Saar are being reshuffled. On Sunday it will become clear whether the SPD can snatch the state chancellery from the CDU after more than 20 years.
You give everything in the election campaign. Despite Corona. First, the Saarland SPD top candidate Anke Rehlinger had to cancel all appointments almost three weeks ago because of a corona infection – without further ado, her team took her to appointments as a life-size cardboard figure.
Then Prime Minister and CDU top candidate Tobias Hans got infected – and campaigned digitally with a robot: with “Robi-Tobi”, a telepresence robot that Hans could control himself and through which he was connected live. So he “rolled” through a number of cities in the country to talk to people.
“Real chance for a change”
There’s a lot at stake this Sunday. Because in the first state election after the federal election in 2021, the change of power could be repeated as in the federal government – and the winner after a long time would be the SPD again. This would be the case in Saarland for the first time in almost 23 years, since the CDU has been the prime minister there since 1999. “There is a real chance for a change,” says the Trier political scientist Uwe Jun. “That gives the election a special tension.”
The focus is on Hans and Deputy Prime Minister Rehlinger (SPD). A black-red duel, because both want to lead the new government. So far, Hans (44) and Rehlinger (45) have governed the small country together in a grand coalition. Economics Minister Rehlinger is now attacking: “I want to be the new prime minister. The deputy has to go.” In the event of an election victory, she would be the first female SPD prime minister in the Saar.
Recent surveys give the lawyer tailwind. Your party and person are clearly ahead of the CDU and Hans, who has been in office since March 2018 as the successor to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Pollsters recently saw the SPD at 41 percent, the CDU at 28 percent. And when it comes to the direct election question, more than half want Rehlinger as head of government, while Hans only wants a third. Saarland, with almost a million inhabitants, has been governed by a grand coalition since 2012.
Mood test for the traffic light
But the election is more than a Saarland election. It is also considered the first major mood test for the red-green-yellow traffic light government in Berlin. And the leap from the grand coalition to traffic lights, as in the federal government, could also be repeated in the Saar. While CDU leader Hans, who has been under pressure in recent weeks, is warning of a traffic light in Saarland and wants to continue the grand coalition, Rehlinger is keeping a low profile on the subject. She has “great sympathy” for a GroKo, which would be even better if she was led “from the front” by the SPD, she says.
Hans fights for his position as a top candidate for the first time. He sees himself as the bearer of bad news in the Corona crisis. He hopes that his CDU can still catch up in the last few meters – and has no “Plan B in the drawer”. It is unclear whether he would also make junior partner in a grand coalition. He tries to score points with topics that are worth talking about – such as the demand for a fuel price brake, which he also played out via cellphone video from the gas station.
Despite polls, Rehlinger remains cautious. She is happy with stable good figures but expects a close race. “The most crucial of all polls will be on March 27, when the voters have the floor.” The shock is still deep when five years ago she lost by a huge margin to the then incumbent Kramp-Karrenbauer, although polls assumed it would be a neck-and-neck race. In surveys, Hans speaks of “snapshots” anyway.
Rehlinger well connected
As deputy SPD federal chairman, Rehlinger is well connected in Berlin. And she emphasizes her contacts: “While others were yelling into their cell phones at the gas station, I took my cell phone and called the Chancellor and many others in Berlin,” she says. For the first time in 16 years, the SPD on the Saar was the strongest force in the federal elections.
Tailwind for Rehlinger comes from Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD). Rehlinger is “the right prime minister,” said Scholz. Because she has shown in recent years as Economics Minister “that she knows the problems well and that she knows what needs to be done to secure the future for many jobs here in Saarland,” he said during an election campaign in Neunkirchen.
Political scientist Jun says that Hans’ “incumbent bonus” should not be underestimated. But: “You know Ms. Rehlinger just as well as the prime minister. The official bonus is hardly available. » Rehlinger has been state minister for ten years. Hans has distinguished himself as a modernizer in recent years and has made digitization, artificial intelligence and research competence his main topics.
First of four state elections
The federal government is also looking at the Saarland elections as the prelude to four state elections in 2022. Also with the question: Will the new CDU chairman Friedrich Merz succeed in giving his party a boost again? The entire CDU federal executive traveled to Saarland at the beginning of March to give Hans a tailwind. This year there will be elections in Schleswig-Holstein, North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony.
Expert Jun considers a grand coalition to be “not an unlikely solution, with whoever is prime minister”. According to surveys, red-green or red-yellow could also be possible in the Saar if the Greens and the FDP – currently not represented in the state parliament – manage to move in. Recent polls see all small parties (Left, FDP, Greens and AfD) close to the five percent hurdle. The recent, fulminant resignation of left-wing politician Oskar Lafontaine from the party has damaged the already divided left again – they could now stay out.
Source: Stern
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