A good seven weeks before the federal election, the SPD and the other smaller parties can improve by one percentage point each in the RTL / ntv trend barometer compared to the previous week. The Greens and the Left both lose a percentage point. The values of the Union, the FDP and the AfD remain unchanged.
This means that the CDU / CSU is still four percentage points below the 30 percent mark, but remains the strongest party with 26 percent. The lead over the Greens is six percentage points, over the SPD ten percentage points.
If the Bundestag election were to take place now, the parties could expect the following result: CDU / CSU 26 percent (2017 Bundestag election: 32.9%), SPD 16 percent (20.5%), FDP 13 percent (10.7%) , Green 20 percent (8.9%), Left 6 percent (9.2%), AfD 10 percent (12.6%). 9 percent would choose one of the other parties (5.2%). At 25 percent, the number of non-voters and the undecided is still higher than the number of non-voters in the 2017 federal election (23.8%).
750 members would move into the new parliament, 41 more than in the 2017 federal election. The Greens would grow by 97 and the FDP by 27 seats. All other parties would have fewer seats in the new Bundestag. The distribution of seats: CDU / CSU 217, Greens 164, SPD 131, FDP 107, Linke 49 and AfD 82 seats.
“Germany Coalition” currently the strongest government alliance
The parties need at least 376 members of parliament in order to be able to form a majority capable of governing. Currently, three constellations are conceivable: black-green (together 381 seats), the “Germany coalition” made up of CDU / CSU, SPD and FDP (455 seats) and a “traffic light coalition” made up of the Greens, SPD and FDP (402 seats) . A “Jamaica coalition” made up of the Union, Greens and FDP could be based on 488 MPs – that’s almost a two-thirds majority – but since the Union and the Greens could form a government without the Liberals, such a coalition would be unlikely. Black-Yellow would have a total of 324 mandates and would therefore be just as incapable of government as a “left alliance” made up of the Greens, the SPD and the Left (together 344 mandates).
Which government coalition would the Germans most likely welcome? 24 percent are for the “Germany coalition” (Union, SPD, FDP), 22 percent for the “Left Alliance” and 19 percent for black-green. The “traffic light” has the fewest supporters (Greens, SPD, FDP) with 10 percent.
49 percent of the Union supporters most likely want a “Germany coalition”, 41 percent would prefer black and green. 43 percent of the SPD supporters prefer the “left alliance”, 24 percent the “traffic light”. 48 percent of the Green supporters prefer the “left alliance”, 33 percent black-green. 53 percent of the FDP supporters want the “Germany coalition”, 13 percent want the “traffic light”.
Chancellor preference: Scholz 21, Baerbock 18, Laschet 15 percent
The SPD candidate Olaf Scholz moved to first place for the first time in the Chancellor question, ahead of the Green candidate Annalena Baerbock and the Union Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet. If the Germans could elect their chancellor directly, Scholz would gain three percentage points compared to the previous week and would now be 21 percent. Annalena Baerbock loses one percentage point and reaches 18 percent. Armin Laschet loses two percentage points and comes to 15 percent. That is ten percentage points less than at the beginning of July. Scholz gained five percentage points in the same period.
Laschet also has less support than the competition from its own supporters. Not even half of the Union supporters (46%) would elect the CDU leader as chancellor. 67 percent of the SPD supporters would choose Scholz, 68 percent of the Greens supporters for Baerbock. And of the Union voters of 2017, only 32 percent would vote for Laschet in a chancellor election.
Corona is once again the most important topic for Germans
The concern about Corona is still great. 56 percent of Germans consider the pandemic to be the most important issue. The storms, by far the dominant topic in the previous week, are considered important by 51 percent of those surveyed. In this week’s forsa themed radar, the upcoming federal election ranks third (27%) ahead of the Olympic Games (15%).
The reports are free for publication with the source RTL / ntv trend barometer.
The data on party and chancellor preferences as well as on the most important topics of the week were collected by the market and opinion research institute forsa on behalf of Mediengruppe RTL from July 27 to August 2, 2021. Database: 2,502 respondents. Statistical margin of error: +/- 2.5 percentage points.
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