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Military expert Carlo Masala does not expect one side to completely defeat the other in the Ukraine war in the foreseeable future. Even in the negotiations, no rapid success is foreseeable.
Despite all the rounds of negotiations, military expert Carlo Masala fears that the war in Ukraine will continue for a long time. Masala said on Friday in the star-Podcast “Ukraine – the situation”, he does not see the negotiations with the same optimism that the negotiators on both sides spread. At first, even an escalation of the fighting is conceivable. “We definitely have to adjust to that”said the politics professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich. “Because the more territorial gains you make, the better the starting position for negotiations.”
Carlo Masala does not expect a quick victory in the Ukraine war
as “lie” Masala referred to Russia’s announcement to withdraw troops from the Kyiv area. It’s not about withdrawal, but about a realignment in the face of massive problems. At the same time, the Ukrainians would be strengthened because they would be supplied with heavier weapons from the West. “The heavier the guns, the more likely we’ll see Ukrainian territorial gains”said Masala.
However, Masala does not expect one side to completely defeat the other any time soon. Even in the negotiations, no rapid success is foreseeable. For example, the security guarantees demanded by Ukraine should include an obligation for the guarantor states to provide assistance – which, however, behaved extremely cautiously, since this meant the risk of a war with Russia. Statements by Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock that Germany was on the side of Ukraine on this issue were seen as an attempt, in view of the Ukrainian criticism of Germany “positive message” to send. However, one is a long way from a concrete form of the guarantees.
Masala expects that attitudes toward war in Western society will change as the conflict progresses. “There is a double danger”he said. “The greater the price that the people of Western Europe have to pay for this war, the greater the pressure to eventually force peace on Ukraine, even if it is to their disadvantage.” In addition, public attention has waned over time, as has been seen in Syria, for example. Decreasing interest could also lead to dwindling support.
Source: Stern
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