Three weeks ago, around 15,000 people from Ukraine came to Germany every day. The federal government now counts between 5,000 and 7,000 refugees a day. Why are fewer coming?
The first big rush is over. Between March 5 and March 19, the federal police counted more than ten thousand newly arrived war refugees from Ukraine every day. On some days more than 15,000 people came to Germany.
The police now capture between 5,000 and 7,000 people a day during their checks in the border area, mainly women, children and the elderly. In total, the police have arrested around 300,000 war refugees since the start of the Russian war of aggression on February 24.
The slight decline in the number of refugees from Ukraine coming to Germany may have something to do with the course of the war in Ukraine – with escape routes that are blocked or too dangerous. Some of the displaced people also have the hope of returning soon. This is also evident when helpers and officials in Berlin and other major German cities try to persuade refugees to continue their journey to other communities where there are more places to sleep.
Transport capacities are often underutilized
Many refugees then say they don’t want to move on. The transport capacities made available by the federal government are therefore often underutilized. In addition to the desire to stay in a larger city, where one hopes for a better standard of living, the consideration of being able to return home more quickly from a transport hub – as soon as possible – also plays a role here.
This desire is understandable, says Sebastian Hartmann, spokesman for domestic affairs for the SPD parliamentary group. However, he assumes “that even if a ceasefire comes, the refugees will not return immediately”. Hartmann says: “In many places in Ukraine, the infrastructure has been so severely destroyed that we are not talking about months, but years.” He dares not predict how many more refugees will come.
Since Ukrainians can enter the country without a visa for 90 days, there is initially no reason for them to report to the authorities. Unless they want to take advantage of state benefits, need a place at school or want to work. The authorities therefore still do not have a precise overview of the total number of war refugees who are in Germany.
Registration required after 90 days
But that will change in the medium term. If the 90-day period is not extended, everyone must register at the latest after the three months have elapsed. Those who then make use of state care will also be obliged to settle in a certain place. The police have already noticed some EU citizens from Romania or Bulgaria who claim to have lived in Ukraine in order to receive state benefits in Germany. It’s probably not a mass phenomenon.
Recently, fewer refugees have also come from Ukraine to Poland. If you look at Polish Border Guard figures, which regularly appear on Twitter, you can see a drop in the number of daily arrivals at the border with Ukraine from almost 30,000 on average between March 18 and 25 to around 26,000 between March 26 and 20 April 1st, with significant fluctuations from day to day. The Polish railway company PKP Intercity reports that the number of passengers from Ukraine has decreased in recent days.
More than 2.4 million people from Ukraine have crossed the border into neighboring Poland since the Russian invasion began more than a month ago. There is no official information on how many war refugees are staying in Poland and how many are traveling on to other EU countries. More than 250,000 Ukraine refugees have already received a residence permit in the Czech Republic, most of whom may have entered the country via Poland. Many war refugees have also recently come to Germany via Austria.
Hubs are Berlin, Hanover and Cottbus
Most refugees arrive by train at the hubs in Berlin, Hanover and occasionally in Cottbus. According to the Senate Department for Social Affairs, around 3,500 refugees arrived in Berlin on Thursday by train and bus. That was a little more than on Wednesday with around 3,000 people, but on March 7, Berlin still had 13,000 per day, on March 15, 7,500. According to the Ministry of the Interior, up to 600 came between March 24 and 31 at the Laatzen exhibition center near Hanover refugees per day, in the week before it was still up to 800 per day. At peak times it was more than 1000 a day.
In order to relieve the capital in particular, the third hub Cottbus in Brandenburg has been in place for more than a week. Initially, only special trains from Breslau arrived there. The number of Ukraine refugees there is significantly lower than in Berlin or Hanover/Laatzen: According to their own statements, the federal police found a total of 665 people from Ukraine on 13 train connections from March 23 to 27 at the train station there. “The utilization is lower than planned,” says a spokeswoman. Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser (SPD) leaves open a prognosis about the further number of refugees, but announced in the newspapers of the editorial network Germany that three further hubs are in preparation.
Brandenburg’s Europe Minister Katrin Lange (SPD) suspects that many refugees do not travel to Cottbus via Breslau because they do not know that they can continue from there. Therefore, the information for refugees should now be improved. “So that the Ukrainians know that Cottbus will continue,” says Lange after a visit to Wroclaw. However, most war refugees continue to arrive in Berlin – even if the number is fewer than a few days ago.
Source: Stern
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