Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen – who will prevail? According to France expert Frank Baasner, there is no guarantee that the current incumbent will win.
The director of the Franco-German Institute in Ludwigsburg, Prof. Frank Baasner, has warned against a victory for right-wing populist Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election.
“A victory for Le Pen would be an emergency stop for all European efforts,” said Baasner of the “Passauer Neue Presse”. A re-election of the incumbent Emmanuel Macron “would be in Germany’s interest in every respect.” Germany and France have “a dense network of bilateral relations” in various areas. Whether or not this is retained depends crucially on the outcome of the election.
The director of the Franco-German Institute believes in Macron’s election victory. “There is a high probability that he will be re-elected, but it is not guaranteed. For Germany, his re-election would mean continuity and continuation of the close relationship.” In France there is “a very clear tendency to strengthen the conservative-right-extreme camp,” said Baasner. This was confirmed by “all surveys and results from recent years”. Because of the weakness of the Conservatives, Le Pen has a chance to collect votes from the entire right-wing camp.
First votes are cast in overseas territories
The first round of voting begins in some overseas territories. Macron wants to get a second term in the vote on the highest French office. Its biggest competitor is Le Pen.
In mainland France, the election will take place on Sunday. Because of the time difference to the French overseas territories, which are several hours behind France, the vote will be held there on Saturday. The archipelago of Saint-Pierre-and-Miquelon off the east coast of Canada is the first, where the polling stations open at 12:00 p.m. CET (8:00 a.m. local time). French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique and French Polynesia follow.
Polls put Macron ahead in the election, even if the gap to Le Pen has recently narrowed. A final decision on the presidential office is not expected for the first round. If, as expected, none of the twelve candidates achieves an absolute majority of the votes, a runoff between the two best-placed candidates will take place on April 24th.
Left-wing politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon also has a chance of entering the runoff election, who has recently risen sharply in the polls and ranked third – albeit at a clear distance from Macron and Le Pen. The other candidates are unlikely to matter be. The traditional mainstream parties of the Socialists and Republicans hardly managed to set any accents in the election campaign and are probably heading for a clear defeat.
Source: Stern
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