Even 1.5 months after the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia does not allow itself to be deterred from its actions – and continues the attack on its neighboring country. Putin’s ex-economic adviser Meanwhile, Andrei Illarionov is sure how the West could force an end to the war.
Despite numerous sanctions, military support for Ukraine and immense political pressure: heavy sanctions from the West cannot prevent Russian President Vladimir Putin from his military offensive in Ukraine. From the point of view of Putin’s ex-economic adviserAndrei Illarionov a means of urging Moscow to end the war quickly: a “real embargo” on Russian energy by Western countries.
“I would bet that Russian military operations in Ukraine will probably end within a month or two,” Illarionov told the BBC. This is one of the very powerful tools Western countries still have at their disposal, said Illarionov, who was Putin’s top economic adviser from 2000 to 2005. He says Russia “doesn’t take seriously” other countries’ threats to cut energy consumption.
Putin is apparently willing to accept economic damage
In fact, Europe’s dependence on Russian energy sources is high. The EU imports about 40 percent of its gas and 27 percent of its oil from Russia. According to estimates by the Bruegel think tank, Russian oil worth around 450 million euros is currently being imported into the EU every day.
“One billion [Euro] we pay Putin every day for the energy he delivers to us,” said EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell a few days ago. In return, this illustrates the profits Russia makes from its energy deal with the EU: last year, the income from the Oil and gas sector accounts for 36 percent of Russian government spending.
Meanwhile, the Russian economy is suffering severely from the sanctions imposed by the West. A recent study by the Russian Central Bank forecasts an eight percent decline in the economy this year. According to the International Institute of Finance, this could even be as high as 15 percent.
But Putin, according to Illarionov, is willing to look past this in order to achieve his goals regarding the war being waged in Ukraine. “His territorial ambitions, his imperial ambitions, are far more important than anything else, including the livelihood of the Russian people and the financial situation in the country…even the financial situation of his government,” said Putin’s former economic adviser, who is now based in the United States lives. Illarionov reckons that the number of Russians living in poverty will likely double, maybe even triple.
And he said a change in government was inevitable “sooner or later.” Because it is “absolutely impossible to have a positive future for Russia with the current political regime”. Under President Putin there is “no way to reintegrate the country into international relations and into the world economy”.
EU working on sanctions package with oil embargo
After the EU’s fifth package of sanctions against Moscow, there could actually be an embargo on Russian energy. The EU Commission is currently working on a new package of sanctions against Russia, which also includes an oil ban. In addition to Ireland, countries such as the Czech Republic, Denmark, the Netherlands and Lithuania are also in favor of an import ban on Russian oil.
Germany, for example, was recently against an oil embargo because such a step would currently hit the EU more economically than Russia, according to the reasoning. A decision has therefore not yet been made. However, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Monday after a ministerial meeting in Luxembourg: “Nothing is off the table, including sanctions on oil and gas.” He advocated making a distinction between the two fuels and starting with oil.
The EU put its fifth sanctions package against Russia into effect last Friday. It provides for an import ban on coal, wood and vodka from August 10, as well as numerous other punitive measures. Part of the package of sanctions is also a complete ban on transactions at the expense of four important Russian banks, including the second largest Russian bank VTB. In addition, ships flying the Russian flag are to be banned from entering EU ports. The delivery of food, humanitarian aid and energy are exempt from the sanctions.
The US government already imposed an import ban on oil from Russia on March 8th. According to US President Joe Biden, the import ban also affects other Russian energy sources such as gas and coal. A senior US official also said on March 8 that only legacy contracts may be continued with a transition period of 45 days.
Sources: , with material from the dpa
Source: Stern
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