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A major attack by Russian forces is imminent in eastern Ukraine. Austria’s Chancellor Nehammer reported from his talks with Putin that this was being “massively prepared”. Military expert Carlo Masala expects the offensive after Easter.
Military expert Carlo Masala expects a major attack by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine after Easter. The reinforcement and redeployment of troops will be completed soon, he said on Tuesday star-Podcast “Ukraine – the situation”.
When the attack begins depends on many factors, including the weather. But it will be quick. “Then it’s a political question as to when this major offensive will begin – but I don’t think it will last longer than a week,” said the politics professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich.
Victory to parade on May 9 not realistic
He does not expect that the Russian associations will achieve quick successes. The Russian leadership certainly aims to achieve victory on May 9th – the anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany. “It doesn’t look very realistic,” he said.
With the appointment of the new commander, Alexander Dwornikov, Putin gave his troops a uniform command structure, but that does not solve the army’s massive problems with logistics, material and personnel, which have become apparent in recent weeks.
Use of chemical weapons would increase pressure on NATO
Masala said that if the Russians use chemical weapons, it will change the discussion in Western societies. “The pressure on governments to get NATO to intervene would then increase,” said Masala. So far, however, NATO has stood by its line of never becoming a party to the war. Ultimately, however, the NATO states would not have control over how Putin reacts to possible steps by the West.
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dr Carlo Masala is Professor of International Politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich.
With concern, Masala pointed to signals from Russia that the announced goals – in particular the “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine – would be pursued by Russia in any case. There is a risk that a ceasefire will only be used by Russia as a strategic pause in order to later launch another attack on Ukraine. “This war can only be won militarily,” said Masala.
Source: Stern
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