Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the presidential elections in France. But it will be a very close race between him and the right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen. She has one advantage: young voters.
Marine Le Pen is a woman who likes to dish out. For example, she used an election campaign appearance for sharp attacks against Germany and announced that she would terminate joint armaments projects if she won the presidential election. “Germany is the negation of the French strategic identity,” she explained.
Le Pen is no longer planning Frexit or leaving the euro, but wants to join other nationalist politicians in transforming the EU into a loose confederation of states. It relies on nuclear power and would ban wind turbines and have them dismantled. And she wants more participation by the people through referendums. Le Pen and incumbent Macron will face off on April 24 in a runoff election that will decide the future president.
In the survey, Le Pen sees young voters ahead
A program that appeals to many young French people. Even before the first round of voting, one came to the conclusion that 56 percent of voters aged 18 to 24 would support Le Pen. According to polling firm Harris Interactive, far-left Mélenchon won the majority of voters aged 18 to 24 with 34.8 percent of the vote, followed by Macron and Le Pen with 24.3 and 18 percent of those votes respectively. Le Pen received the largest share of voters aged 25 to 34 at 30 percent. It is also ahead among the 35 to 49 year olds.
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Overall, however, Macron is more in the favor of the people in France. According to surveys, he is 53 to 55 percent – Le Pen at 45 to 47 percent.
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But why does Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National (formerly Front National) seem to have such an advantage among young voters in France?
One reason Le Pen — but also left-wing candidate Mélenchon — has been able to garner so many young voters is, analysts say, the pull of both Le Pen and Mélenchon’s economic populism and a rejection of status quo globalism.
Anger at the government and anti-establishment
Add to this a crisis in the cost of living and prices in France, and the widespread perception among French people that Macron is a, which could pose a major challenge for the incumbent.
The surge in popularity of candidates at the extreme end of the spectrum “is a manifestation of anger at the years of their lives lost due to the coronavirus pandemic and lockdowns; part of this is anti-establishment positioning against the French government,” says the expert for international political affairs, Julien Hoez, the broadcaster .
“In addition, there are the generational, economic, employment and cultural stressors throughout French society that have been seized upon and armed by parties such as the RN and the LFI,” says Hoez, citing Le Pen’s Rassemblement National and Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise.
Macron and Le Pen – for some a choice between plague and cholera
At Le Pen, change in her image also plays a role. Away from migration and national identity, towards the cost of living and other social issues. In the current economic situation, that is being heard. Purchasing power and the cost of living are important issues for 58 percent of voters, according to an Ipsos poll published on April 10.
Le Pen is finding traction with the right campaign promises, such as energy tax cuts and leaving the current retirement age for most and lowering the retirement age for young people, while Macron wants to raise it.
A look at how young French people view their presidential election reveals a lot. “I didn’t register for the election,” said a 23-year-old before the first round of the election. Another 21-year-old voter: “I don’t know which candidate to vote for.”
An advantage for Le Pen could be that young people in France perceive the choice between Le Pen and Macron as between the plague and cholera. Angry about the results of the first round of the French presidential election, students occupied buildings at the Sorbonne University in Paris. Students at the prestigious Sciences Po University in Paris also protested because of the election. An online statement from students at the university says they refuse to accept a second duel between “the neoliberal and authoritarian Macron and the proven fascist Le Pen.”
“Macron or Le Pen, we’re screwed anyway”
Young people in France in particular, many of whom supported third-place leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, are disappointed with the outcome of the election. In order to prevent Le Pen as President, many feel compelled to vote for Macron, even though they do not agree with his increasingly liberal-conservative policies. “Macron or Le Pen, we’re screwed anyway,” a young voter tells the broadcaster.
Another explains to the broadcaster: “Most importantly, I don’t want to see Macron back in power, so for the second round I’m hesitating between casting a blank ballot and voting with Le Pen. Marine Le Pen is better than Macron on social issues. ” Having a right-wing extremist president doesn’t scare him, he says.
A 19-year-old student tells France 24 that she will not vote for Macron either – but neither will she for Le Pen. She will cast a blank ballot.
Young French voted for Marine Le Pen in 2017
However, the young support for Le Pen has been around for several years – even during the last presidential election five years ago. Even then, Le Pen was perceived as a candidate who could change things. “In France, polls show that a desire for ‘change’ is a key factor in youth support for Le Pen,” said Professor Jim Shields of Aston University in .
Another reason young people supported what was then Le Pen’s Front National, according to Shields, was that this young constituency could not remember the FN as an outsider party when the party brought together some of the most radical elements of the French extreme right.
Even then, youth unemployment and low security for those in work took advantage of Le Pen and struck a chord with the Front National. They played with the disappointment of voters from the established parties, the Conservatives and Socialists.
Marine Le Pen is seen as the “liberator” of France
“We thought the right had failed because there was still high unemployment and more insecurity and social misery,” said Gaëtan Dussausaye, when he was the Front National’s youth chief. “So when we had the chance to vote for the left five years ago, we did. But President Francois Hollande turned out to be just like former President Nicolas Sarkozy and nothing has changed.” Only Marine Le Pen will break with 40 years of globalization, multiculturalism and brutal free market policies that have damaged France.
Five years later, in this year’s runoff, the dissatisfaction of youth and young voters in France could be Le Pen’s advantage. With the current economic crisis caused by the Russian war in Ukraine and the corona pandemic, young people’s disenchantment with the established parties and Macron, and her change in image, Marine Le Pen could be ahead of the young electorate on April 24. It is still open whether she will achieve victory.
Other sources: News agencies DPA and AFP
Source: Stern
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