The battle for the port city of Mariupol is seen as seminal for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Kyiv is not yet giving up the metropolis. But Russia’s threats are sharp and clear.
After around 50 days of siege by Russian troops, Mariupol is considered the “heart of the war” in Ukraine.
If Mariupol falls, then Ukraine will fall, the Ukrainian fighters, who have now entrenched themselves in the Asovstal steelworks, have been warning for weeks – for what will probably be the last and decisive battle. Around 2,500 fighters have withdrawn from the operation, which is symbolic for the region, including 400 mercenaries, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. According to Ukrainian media reports, 1,000 civilians, including many children, are said to have sought refuge there.
The Ukrainian fighters ignored a Russian ultimatum to lay down their arms and surrender. They concede on Monday that the Russian soldiers are clearly in the majority. Nevertheless, the fight for the city continues. Meanwhile, in Moscow, Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov is threatening to destroy anyone who resists.
Selenskyj has been demanding heavy weapons for weeks
The Ukrainian soldiers have been counting on help from Kyiv for weeks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeatedly assures that he will do everything to prevent Mariupol from falling. In return, he demands heavy weapons from the West as quickly as possible. And he threatens Russia that if people die in the surrounded Asovstal plant, that will also mean the end of negotiations to end the war.
The Ukrainian secret service SBU is now even having the imprisoned pro-Russian MP Viktor Medvedchuk ask for the lives of the people in the plant via video. Medvedchuk, who has excellent contacts in the Kremlin in Moscow, is appealing to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy to swap him for the fighters at Asovstal. And the Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk urges Russia to set up a humanitarian corridor for women and children and other civilians in the plant in order to save their lives.
Tens of thousands dead in Mariupol
The authorities are already complaining about tens of thousands of deaths in the largely destroyed city. Mariupol is the last point on the Azov Sea coast not yet fully controlled by Russian forces. If the separatist republics of Luhansk and Donzek, which are recognized by Russia, remain formally independent, they would have access to the world’s oceans with Mariupol. They could export their production themselves via the well-developed largest port on the Sea of Azov, independently of Russian land routes via the inexpensive waterway.
The overland route from Mariupol to the Crimean Peninsula, which has been annexed by Russia since 2014, is also a subject of much discussion. However, the road links are unlikely to be of any interest to Russia because of their poor condition. What is also important from a military point of view are the railway connections further north via Volnowacha, recently conquered by Russian troops, in the direction of Melitopol, which has been under Russian control since the end of February, and from there to Crimea.
Before the war, the region’s second largest city after the separatist stronghold of Donetsk accounted for a large proportion of Ukrainian exports. “The Mariupol works contribute to more than a third of Ukraine’s steel production,” said the general director of the concern Metinvest, Yuriy Ryzhenkov, at the end of March. Due to the destruction alone, the loss of this foreign exchange earner is likely to have a negative impact on the exchange rate of the national currency hryvnia and thus on the general level of prosperity in Ukraine after the war.
Fall of Mariupol is likely to be a partial victory for Russia
Above all, Mariupol also has great symbolic importance for the “Azov” National Guard Regiment, which was founded by neo-Nazis and nationalists and is still dominated by them today. According to the founding myth of the unit, the unit, which was founded by volunteers in early May 2014, liberated the port city, which was then controlled by separatists, less than a month later.
In the meantime, however, “Azov” has already lost its base in the neighboring port city of Berdyansk. Should Mariupol fall as well, it would mean the defeat of the core of the unit that the Russian troops fought with particular severity. Russia is likely to celebrate this as a major partial victory in its war of aggression against Ukraine.
The persistent resistance in Mariupol against the Russian invasion has so far ensured that, according to Ukrainian information, a Russian group of around 14,000 soldiers with heavy equipment is tied down. With the fall of the port city, these would become free. The Russian soldiers could bring the decisive advantage for the long-awaited Russian offensive towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Separatist chief: “We are here forever”
Meanwhile, the Donetsk separatist leader Denis Puschilin is already promising the reconstruction of the city. «We are here forever. Russia is here forever,” said the 40-year-old during an appearance on the conquered eastern outskirts of the city in front of the residents who remained there. But he doesn’t think the Asovstal steelworks, which is currently being held by Ukrainian soldiers, is worth preserving because of the air pollution. “Azovstal did not allow the city to become a resort,” says Puschilin.
In the almost completely destroyed city, in which almost 440,000 people lived before the war, everyday life should soon reign again. He did not explain how to do this.
Source: Stern
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